Even in Vladimir Putin’s Russia, there is only so much that can be done to suppress bad news. The surprise Ukrainian incursion into Russian sovereign territory has proved far more significant and sustainable than any previous opportunistic minor raids, and has humiliated the Kremlin and President Putin personally.
Such has been the scale of this unexpected move that Russia has been unable to ignore it, still less deny its existence, and states of emergency have had to be declared in two oblasts: Kursk, and now Belgorod. Videos are circulating on social media of burnt-out Russian equipment and convoys, joyful Ukrainian soldiers tearing down Russian flags from town halls, weary Russian PoWs, and more than 100,000 civilians being evacuated.
As if to confirm the seriousness of the situation, Russian state TV has broadcast pictures of a plainly annoyed Mr Putin at a meeting with his senior officials, his ire particularly aimed at the governor of the Kursk region.
The political and propaganda value of this audacious Ukrainian deployment far outweighs its purely military importance. Now more than a week on, it has highlighted Russian incompetence, and clearly the Russians did not see it coming – suggesting that their agents are failing to penetrate Ukrainian military planning. As Volodymyr Zelensky puts it, “Russia brought war to others, and now it is coming home.”
The point is rammed home in remarks made to The Independent by Mykhailo Podolyak, a senior adviser to the Ukrainian president: “Russia needs to be forced to the negotiation table, it needs to understand that the cost of war is rising. Russia will only turn to the negotiating table if there are also military defeats. Through the military, we are now in a better position in terms of negotiations. And Russia will only negotiate when it realises that we are a force to be reckoned with.”
The Russian people, long fed lies about the war by the Kremlin, can now see and experience for themselves what is really happening. They should not now need more reminding that what Mr Putin called his “special military operation” has not succeeded. It may be that Russia has not yet lost this war – it still holds the territories annexed in 2014 and some of the ground won since the second invasion which was launched with such pomp in February 2022 – but Russia has not won this war, and victory is far from certain.
Broadly speaking, and despite the recent excitements, this war remains in stalemate. But the Ukrainian incursion has brought real gains to Ukraine, and ones that will help its negotiating position when the peace talks come, as they must one day. The Russians have had to divert troops that would otherwise be pressing on with their slow advance in the Donbas. They have also lost some of the freedom to bombard Ukrainian targets from Russian territory with impunity, and had important supply lines disrupted.
More significantly, the incursion sets an important new precedent – that Ukrainian troops no longer have to stop operations at the border. As with the drones and aircraft, they can pursue objectives without that artificial impediment, which evens up the tactical situation. While Western powers still set some limits on the use of their more advanced equipment on Russian soil, there is now sufficient leeway for the Ukrainians to leverage their technological advantages. Soon the Ukrainian air force will be able to bring their new F-16 fighters to bear in the war, if not risk them over the occupied Russian territories.
Russia has been trying to strike back at Kyiv’s forces, and claims that the lightning advance has been halted. Reports from the fluid front line say that it is not easy to see what is going on, but the very fact of Russian territory being occupied by a foreign power for the first time since the Second World War is an undoubted shock.
President Putin no longer tries to threaten the West with escalation of the war and nuclear annihilation if the West supplies Ukraine with armaments or allows their use in offensive operations. His bluff has been called, and his prestige has been badly damaged.
Meanwhile, the war and Western sanctions, though imperfect, have affected the living standards of the Russian people and, quite possibly, led some around President Putin to wonder what is to be done to rescue the Ukrainian campaign. President Putin will also be well aware that his old collaborator Donald Trump is less likely to launch a White House peace initiative favourable to Russia in a matter of months, and, if elected, Kamala Harris will continue to send aid to Kyiv.
Other Nato and European powers, with the single exception of Hungary, remain resolute, and Poland is rapidly rearming; and China cannot be relied on to support Russia at the expense of losing Western markets to sanctions. Mr Putin is on the defensive, and not just in Kursk.