Victorious cheers and celebrations erupted across the capital, Damascus, as the nearly half-century-old Assad regime fell in Syria, the Middle East’s central conflict zone. However, the stability and sovereignty of the new government is still questionable. A storm of operations by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other rebel groups, led by key rebel leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, toppled the controversial, tyrannical, autocratic government of Bashar al-Assad in just 12 days. A self-defeat Asad fled the country in hiding with his family to an unknown exile.
Syria is on the way to forming a new government with a peaceful transfer of power. The suppressed Arab Spring of 2011 appears to have had a successful rebirth, but apprehensions of internal factional-sectarian conflicts, attacks by neighboring states and international intervention once again loom over the Syrian people. But the hope is that all the misgivings will be proved wrong and a peaceful, fair and independent Shaam (Lavent) will be formed.
The Pot of Power
The fall of the Assad regime was inevitable. No government can be established based on suppressive forces. After the fall of the Ottoman Empire, the countries of the Middle East were dismembered and torn apart by the covenant of the League of Nations. In 1946, Syria gained independence from French colonial mandate rule. However, Western powers, especially America, continued exerting influence to make and break governments for their own interests.[1]
Then the Assad family has been ruling Syria since 1971. After the death of Hafez al-Assad in 2000, he was succeeded by his son Bashar. The Asad family of Alawite sect-run administration had imposed extreme repression on the majority non-ruling Sunni community. Assad resorted to mass killings of innocent civilians, repression of intellectuals, imprisonment and mass disappearances to establish a dissent-free government. The Syrian refugee crisis became a major headline. As a result, according to a UN report, thousands of families bear the emotional pain of not knowing where their loved ones are.[2] With the support of various regional military powers, the Assad regime has attacked its own citizens, the Syrian people, bombing their homes, pushing the country into sectarianism, violence and starvation, just for the sake of power. Slaughterhouses, mass executions and other inhumane atrocities were perpetrated by the Assad regime on the Syrian people.
Needless to say, power is not maintained by means of oppression and suppression. History is witness to all these examples. People emerge as rebels and overthrow the entire system. Good governance must be strong to maintain sovereignty, but based on justice, welfare and the interests of the people.
The Assad-led Baath Party suppressed the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings with extreme repression. Later, the violence escalated into a civil war between various rebel groups and the government military. Finally, today is a different picture with the fall of Assad and the formation of a new government marking a new era with a coalition of rebels led by Abu Muhammad al-Jolani.
On the way to revolution
Opposition groups including Ahrar al-Sham, Jaish al-Izza, National Liberation Front, Noor al-Din Zengi, etc. are led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) under the leadership Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a alias Abu Muhammad al-Julani united against Assad forces.[3] The timing of the operation was also delicate, as pro-Assad immunities including Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia were involved in other wars, leaving with a relative vacuum in Syria.
America was not happy with the Assad regime as it was allied with Russia, Iran and other US enemies. Moreover, Assad continues to receive the support of proxy forces such as Hezbollah, which repeatedly angers Israel with cross-border attacks.
On November 29, united rebel groups launched an attack on and captured Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city, north of Damascus. This was the first time since December 2016. They stormed back and took Hama on 5th December, Daraa on 6th, Homs on 7th and finally the capital Damascus on 8th without heavy counter offensives by government forces.[4] Assad left the kingdom and went into exile in an unknown location, possibly Moscow.
Celebrations are seen across the country to welcome a new era in the Middle East. Thousands of men and women are breaking out of Assad’s brutal prisons, mosques are lit up, streets are filled with jubilation – many similar scenes.
A future of hope and fear
But among so many hopes lurks the fear of some uncertainties. First, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani was a member of the al-Qaeda group led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, which has caused great harm to Muslims worldwide.[5] The organization has been accused of acting as an agent of Western powers against Muslims. However, the good news is that al-Jolani left the group many years ago to establish his own path through Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, whose historic victory was a huge success.
Second, reviewing the current situation, many experts believe that Assad’s fall was the result of external Western powers and Israeli machinations. If so, it will not take long for the colonial aspirations of Greater Israel to be fulfilled. Already, there have been reports of Israeli military deployments across the demilitarized zone adjacent to the Golan Heights. Eventually, it won’t be long before Syria turns into Libya.
These two main concerns may pose obstacles to achieving the desired peaceful and stable future for Syria. The incoming government needs to plan for the welfare of the country’s people so as to compensate for the losses of the past, protect its independence and sovereignty from the influence of external forces, and maintain solidarity with various local organizations and communities so that no violence breaks the country again.
Md Sohel Mondal is from Jharkhand and is a postgraduate scholar at the Department of Civilizational Studies, Darul Huda Islamic University, Kerala. He writes regularly in both English and Bengali on current affairs.
[1] Irfan Ahmad. “How the West de-democratised the Middle East.” Al Jazeera, 30 March 2012, https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2012/3/30/how-the-west-de-democratised-the-middle-east.
[2] United Nations. “UN Secretary-General Calls for Immediate Halt to Hostilities in Gaza.” UN News, 6 Dec. 2024, https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/12/1157931.
[3] Al Labs. “Syria Tracker: Maps and Charts.” Al Jazeera, 8 Dec. 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/3/syria-tracker-maps-and-charts.
[4] Morris, Loveday. “Syria’s Assad Struggles to Control Key Areas as Timeline of Recent Military Losses Emerges.” The Washington Post, 7 Dec. 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/12/07/syria-assad-homs-damascus-timeline/.
[5] Stanley Johny. “Abu Muhammad al-Jolani: Syria’s jihadist-in-chief.” The Hindu, 8 December 2024, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/abu-muhammad-al-jolani-syrias-jihadist-in-chief/article68959633.ece.