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Austria’s mainstream political groups promised to freeze the far-right Freedom party out of power after it won parliamentary elections last autumn. But the collapse of their coalition talks has put FPÖ’s firebrand leader Herbert Kickl on a glide path to the chancellery.
Chancellor Karl Nehammer, of the moderate conservative People’s party (ÖVP), announced his resignation on Saturday, after failing to negotiate a new government with the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and liberal Neos.
His replacement, Christian Stocker, the ÖVP’s general secretary, quickly abandoned Nehammer’s red line when he indicated he intended to hold “serious discussions” with the Freedom party to form a coalition. The ÖVP would be the junior partner in such a configuration.
While few things have stayed certain for long in Austria’s tumultuous recent political history, analysts believe events of the last weekend strengthen the Freedom party’s hand no matter what plays out.
“The probability is now very high of Kickl as chancellor,” said Thomas Hofer, a prominent Austrian political analyst. “I think it may happen quickly. Kickl himself probably doesn’t want new elections and the incentive for him now will be to show he can get a deal done, unlike the others.”
Such a victory would not only mark a historic first for the Austrian far right, but would also consolidate the rising influence of similar parties across Europe, putting one of its most controversial figures at the helm of a national government.
For some, the writing has been on the wall since September.
In elections at the end of that month, support for Austria’s political centre fragmented, with FPÖ gaining its highest ever share of the vote, thanks to years of political scandal and economic malaise that have turned Austrians against a moribund political establishment. The party won the votes of over a quarter of Austrians — some 29 per cent of the electorate.
Kickl’s pro-Russian views, embrace of conspiratorial thinking around the Covid-19 pandemic and unsavoury flirtations with Austria’s Nazi past have made him too toxic for Nehammer and other centrists, who vowed to keep him out of power.
But the notion of a cordon sanitaire against the far right has always been a contingent affair in Austria, where the Freedom party, founded in 1956, has had several stints in power.
The FPÖ has been in government as a junior partner with the ÖVP in 1999 and 2017 and once with the SPÖ in 1983. It also has a long history of governing in coalitions in Austria’s nine federal states.
While Kickl is a divisive figure, few doubt his political skills and his success in broadening the FPÖ’s appeal since he took over the party leadership in 2019.
In a survey released by Austria’s biggest newspaper on Sunday, the tabloid Kronen Zeitung, figures showed that the FPÖ could even poll as high as 37 per cent in a snap election, with the once dominant ÖVP falling to just 21 per cent.
The chances of the People’s party and Social Democrats burying their differences in order to prevent FPÖ from being the dominant force in a coalition government remained steep, regardless of their rhetoric about protecting the political centre.
Nehammer threw all his weight behind bridging that gap — and failed.
“Both the ÖVP and SPÖ have powerful factions that were sceptical of the prospects of a coalition and they appear to have been responsible for negotiations collapsing,” said Marcus How, head of research at the political consultancy VE Insight.
Nehammer’s resignation, How said, became unavoidable once it was clear grand coalition, spanning the country’s two main centre ground parties, would never survive the backroom politicking of their vested interests.
A further decisive factor in recent days appears to have been a bold play by former ÖVP leader and chancellor Sebastian Kurz for a political comeback. For months rumours have swirled that Kurz, who is still just 38 years old, would try to do so.
Convicted of perjury and under investigation for corruption, Kurz is still viewed by many in the party, despite his talents, as a liability.
Last week he finally pitched party bigwigs to restore him as leader, on the basis that his record — two huge electoral victories in 2017 and 2019 — showed him to be the only figure who could save the party from the FPÖ.
His condition was for a snap election, two senior ÖVP officials told the Financial Times. The party felt it could not afford such a deal, as its coffers were too depleted, and many were sceptical as to whether he could achieve any kind of turnaround given the dire polling the party was receiving.
The play, even if unsuccessful, made clear that Nehammer’s future as leader was over. And Kurz is seen as far from out of the game.
“Many people believe his time will come again,” said Hofer. “Stocker is certainly not a figure for the party to pin their future on.”