Among the former Soviet states that gained independence in the early 1990s, Georgia has long enjoyed a reputation as one of the most steadfastly pro-European. Polls have consistently found that up to 80% of its 3.7 million population support joining the European Union – an aspiration that is enshrined in the constitution. Sadly, following a pivotal election that will further polarise a deeply divided country, those ambitions now look likely to be put on indefinite hold.
The unexpectedly decisive victory of the anti-western Georgian Dream party (GD) on Saturday – amid reliable reports of intimidation, coercion and pressure on voters – will be a source of dismay in Brussels and satisfaction in Moscow. For Georgians fearful that their country is being bullied away from European values and into Russia’s authoritarian orbit, GD’s re-election is a calamity. It is also further evidence of the extent to which the fallout from Vladimir Putin’s brutal assault on Ukraine, and his wider revanchist aims, are affecting the wider politics of the region.
Less than a year after Georgia was awarded EU candidate status, GD’s oligarch founder, Bidzina Ivanishvili, appears intent on turning the country into a Kremlin-friendly illiberal democracy, in the manner of Turkey, Serbia and Viktor Orbán’s Hungary. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Georgia has become a suspected conduit for sanctions-busting trade, while domestic policies have been copied and pasted out of Mr Putin’s authoritarian playbook.
A “foreign agents” bill, designed to emasculate civil society organisations, sparked mass protests in Tbilisi in the spring. It was swiftly followed in the summer by draconian legislation to restrict LGBT+ rights, including a ban on same-sex marriage. During the election campaign, a vote for pro-western opposition parties was portrayed as a vote for a “Global War” party, liable to embroil Georgia in a disastrous war with Russia.
While Mr Ivanishvili realigns Georgia away from the west, destabilising Russian pressure is also being exerted on Ukraine’s smaller neighbour, Moldova. In a referendum last week, amid allegations of Moscow-backed disinformation and bribery, Moldovans voted by a far smaller margin than expected to enshrine the path to EU membership in the country’s constitution. Police and prosecutors alleged that Russian attempts to bribe voters had begun long before the poll. Mr Putin’s brutal efforts to restore Moscow’s sway in former satellite Soviet states are taking their toll.
Events in Georgia present European leaders with urgent dilemmas. Confronted with the country’s lurch towards authoritarianism, the EU announced the freezing of accession negotiations in July. The president of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, have called for an investigation into alleged irregularities in the election, and possible sanctions are likely to be discussed when EU leaders next meet in November. But these would need to be skilfully targeted, or risk deepening the east-west divide that Mr Ivanishvili has sought to open up.
On Sunday, Georgia’s president, Salome Zourabichvili, refused to recognise the election result. Opposition parties have followed suit. What comes next will depend on the level of mobilisation in the streets, and what impact western pressure can have. As protesters marched in Tbilisi on Monday, Mr Orbán arrived in the capital to congratulate Mr Ivanishvili. It was a dismal sign of the times.