THE AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS (ANC)—the continent’s oldest liberation movement, the spearhead of resistance to apartheid and the governing party since 1994—is no longer a hegemonic force in South Africa’s politics. Though the results of elections held on May 29th will not be finalised for a day or two, early projections suggest that the ANC has taken a beating. The party is set to win about 42% of the national vote, according to psephologists from News24, a local outlet, a precipitous fall from the 57.5% it won at the previous elections in 2019. Cyril Ramaphosa will be the first ANC leader without a parliamentary majority. Unlike his hero, Nelson Mandela, who magnanimously opted to govern in a coalition during the first three years of multi-racial democracy, the South African president will have no choice but to cut a deal to keep his party in power.
As a consequence the next fortnight will see the most important political negotiations in South Africa since the talks in the early 1990s that ended white rule. Mr Ramaphosa, who led those discussions on behalf of Mandela, again faces a defining task. Though the precise results, including those in concurrent provincial elections, will dictate all the possible routes, the path ahead has essentially two possible destinations: pragmatism or populism. What the president and other politicians decide in the days ahead will determine the direction of the country for years to come.