The SAG Awards‘ 2025 nominations have not made an already up-in-the-air Oscar race much clearer.
While there was much anticipation that “Wicked” would fare well with the voting body composed of Screen Actors Guild members, star Jonathan Bailey being nominated for Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture is not something that was on too many people’s radars.
Even more of a curveball are the nominations for “The Last Showgirl” stars Pamela Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis, even if hindsight being 20/20, it has been evident how well liked the pair are by their peers. Remember, the SAG Awards are what teed up Curtis to win her Oscar for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” in what was a close race between her, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” star Angela Bassett, and “The Banshees of Inisherin” breakout Kerry Condon.
All of this is to say, while the rest of the awards bodies seen as predictors for the Oscars have become more international, the SAG Awards nominations feel less so. For instance, “A Complete Unknown,” which had the shortest runway to take off into awards season, forgoing any fall festival premieres, and screening to the public for the first time far after its fellow nominees, still managed to not only get a nomination for lead Timothée Chalamet, but nominations for supporting players Edward Norton and Monica Barbaro, plus an overall Best Ensemble nomination. That has been a much bigger haul for the Searchlight Pictures release than anywhere else, for a film so rooted in American music culture.
In terms of what people were not recognized, it was international stars like Australian actor Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”) or Italian actress Isabella Rossellini that got short shrift, presumably in favor of American actors like Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”) or Curtis (again, both were more on the fringes of what nominations people were predicting.)
There were also fewer Black actors making it in than expected. These nominations in particular felt like a make-or-break moment for “Sing Sing” to be a real Best Picture contender. Though lead Colman Domingo still did get nominated, his co-star Clarence Maclin, once seen as a Best Supporting Actor frontrunner, did not, nor did the A24 film get a Best Ensemble nod. “Hard Truths” star Marianne Jean-Baptiste has been an absolute critical darling, but has not fared as well with awards bodies that have more overlap with the Academy. “Nickel Boys” star Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor also was someone who people pegged for more Supporting Actress nominations, but has only been recognized by the Critics Choice Awards so far. And Denzel Washington, who has steadily been nominated for awards handed out by journalists, was not nominated for “Gladiator II,” (though the actor has been embraced by the guild less than one would expect, having won only one SAG Award previously for “Fences.”)
Of course, there are still nominations that rebut the angle on these perceived snubs. International stars like Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) and Yura Borisov (“Anora”) still got nominated, as did Danielle Deadwyler for “The Piano Lesson,” which had an almost entirely Black cast. But it all does feel like a shift from where the guild was at when it awarded Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture to “Parasite” and “Black Panther.”
Ultimately, with everything being so shaky, these SAG Awards nominations have less to say about what people will be nominated for Oscars, and more to say about who will win. For instance, “Conclave” and “The Brutalist” have been seen as two stealth favorites to win Best Picture, but if the former can only muster two SAG Awards nominations, and the latter only one, as strong as both ensembles are, then that may not be true. After all, the Actors branch is the biggest one within the Academy, and it has a ton of overlap with SAG. Overall, nominees “Anora,” “Emilia Pérez,” and “Wicked” have been faring much better across the board.
The SAG nominations for Best Actor align with what lineup has been predicted for Oscars since “A Complete Unknown” first screened, but it is the Best Actress race that has been ever evolving. If SAG Awards are to be the most trusted, then everyone except Anderson can likely expect an Oscar nomination. Though “Maria” star Angelina Jolie seemed like a lock for the longest time, no SAG nomination the day that Oscar nominations voting opens is the straw that has broken her campaign’s back. If feels even more like a fool’s errand trying to predict the final lineups for Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress based on these SAG nominations, but they do still really support the idea that “A Real Pain” star Kieran Culkin and “Emilia Pérez” star Zoe Saldaña are the most locked in to win even more awards the rest of the season, all the way into the 97th Oscars on March 2.