Friday, December 20, 2024

Tesla (TSLA) sales in Europe are down 14% year-to-date and it’s time to worry

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European automotive sales numbers are out, and Tesla’s sales are down 13.7% year-to-date. It is driving the entire EV market down.

If you take Tesla out of the equation, the European EV market is up.

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) has released its November sales data, which gives us great insight into the European EV market.

We have been reporting that Tesla has been having issues in several key European markets all year.

Tesla fans have been pointing out that the entire EV market is down in Europe, but now that we have the full data, it’s clear that Tesla is the issue more than EVs.

Here’s the data year-to-date:

Brands % Share (Nov 2024) % Share (Nov 2023) Units (Nov 2024) Units (Nov 2023) % Change (Nov 24/23) % Share (Jan-Nov 2024) % Share (Jan-Nov 2023) Units (Jan-Nov 2024) Units (Jan-Nov 2023) % Change (Jan-Nov 24/23)
Volkswagen Group 27.2 25.9 286.6K 278.8K +2.8 26.3 25.9 3,119.2K 3,051.8K +2.2
Volkswagen 11.2 10.4 117.9K 111.9K +5.4 10.6 10.5 1,258.3K 1,241.6K +1.3
Skoda 6.5 5.7 68.1K 61.9K +10.0 5.9 5.3 700.7K 625.8K +12.0
Audi 5 5.7 52.6K 61.6K -14.7 5.2 5.7 612.5K 676.9K -9.5
Seat 1.7 1.8 17.7K 19.0K -6.9 2.1 1.9 244.2K 227.1K +7.6
Cupra 1.9 1.5 20.1K 16.3K +23.5 1.7 1.5 198.6K 179.9K +10.4
Porsche 0.9 0.7 9.4K 7.4K +28.3 0.8 0.8 97.3K 92.2K +5.5
Others 0.1 0.1 0.6K 0.6K -2 0.1 0.1 7.5K 8.3K -9.5
Stellantis 13.5 14.8 142.4K 159.6K -10.8 15.5 16.9 1,843.3K 1,990.1K -7.4
Peugeot 5 4.2 52.8K 45.1K +17.0 5 5.1 595.9K 599.0K -0.5
Opel/Vauxhall 2.7 3.3 28.5K 35.4K -19.6 3.3 3.6 387.4K 427.0K -9.3
Citroen 2.4 2.6 25.1K 27.8K -9.6 2.4 2.9 335.4K 347.5K -3.5
Fiat 1.6 2.7 17.1K 28.6K -40.2 3 3.6 290.4K 356.6K -18.6
Jeep 1 1 10.6K 10.8K -1.3 1 1 121.5K 117.6K +3.3
Alfa Romeo 0.4 0.4 4.3K 4.4K -2.7 0.3 0.4 40.8K 46.6K -12.4
DS 0.3 0.3 2.8K 2.9K -3 0.3 0.4 34.7K 45.5K -23.6
Lancia/Chrysler 0.1 0.4 0.9K 4.0K -77.7 0.3 0.4 31.9K 41.9K -23.7
Others 0 0.1 0.3K 0.6K -43.3 0 0.1 5.4K 8.4K -36
Renault Group 10.6 9.5 111.7K 102.3K +9.2 9.7 9.6 1,152.4K 1,130.6K +1.9
Renault 5.9 5.1 62.1K 54.8K +13.2 5.3 5.2 626.7K 615.3K +1.8
Dacia 4.7 4.4 49.4K 47.1K +4.8 4.4 4.3 522.0K 512.0K +2.0
Alpine 0 0 0.3K 0.4K -19.6 0 0 3.7K 3.3K +11.6
Hyundai Group 7.6 8.3 79.7K 89.1K -10.5 8.3 8.7 984.5K 1,029.6K -4.4
Kia 3.8 4.1 40.2K 43.8K -8.4 4.2 4.6 494.7K 538.0K -8.1
Hyundai 3.8 4.2 39.6K 45.3K -12.5 4.1 4.2 489.8K 491.5K -0.4
Toyota Group 8 7 84.4K 75.3K +12.0 7.7 6.9 919.1K 817.8K +12.4
Toyota 7.4 6.5 77.8K 70.2K +10.9 7.2 6.5 849.6K 763.2K +11.3
Lexus 0.6 0.5 6.6K 5.2K +27.1 0.6 0.5 69.4K 54.6K +27.3
BMW Group 7.9 8.1 83.2K 86.9K -4.3 7.1 7 839.8K 823.2K +2.0
BMW 6.4 6.5 67.8K 69.8K -2.9 6 5.6 707.5K 656.4K +7.8
Mini 1.5 1.6 15.4K 17.1K -9.7 1.1 1.4 132.2K 166.7K -20.7
Mercedes-Benz 5.9 5.8 62.3K 62.3K +0.1 5.3 5.4 629.5K 634.7K -0.8
Mercedes 5.9 5.5 62.2K 59.6K +4.3 5.2 5.2 617.9K 609.4K +1.4
Smart 0 0.2 0.1K 2.6K -96.2 0.1 0.2 11.6K 25.3K -54
Ford 3.1 3.6 32.7K 38.8K -15.6 3.3 4.1 395.6K 478.4K -17.3
Volvo Cars 2.9 2.5 31.0K 26.5K +16.8 2.8 2.2 336.8K 256.7K +31.2
Nissan 2.1 2.4 22.3K 25.3K -11.9 2.4 2.3 283.2K 268.9K +5.3
Tesla 2.5 3.4 26.2K 36.6K -28.4 2.4 2.8 282.7K 327.6K -13.7
SAIC Motor 1.9 1.9 19.5K 20.2K -3.4 1.8 1.7 217.2K 205.0K +6.0
Suzuki 1.4 1.5 14.4K 15.7K -8.5 1.6 1.5 189.4K 172.1K +10.0
Mazda 1.2 1.4 12.4K 14.8K -16.6 1.3 1.4 156.8K 167.8K -6.6
Jaguar Land Rover Group 1.1 1.2 12.0K 12.8K -6.3 1.2 1.1 140.2K 133.9K +4.7
Land Rover 1 1 10.8K 10.5K +2.9 1 0.9 118.4K 110.7K +7.0
Jaguar 0.1 0.2 1.2K 2.3K -47.8 0.2 0.2 21.8K 23.2K -5.9
Honda 0.4 0.5 4.4K 5.5K -19.6 0.6 0.5 70.1K 56.1K +24.9
Mitsubishi 0.3 0.4 3.6K 4.8K -25.6 0.5 0.3 55.1K 38.6K +42.8

Tesla delivered 26,200 vehicles in Europe (EU, EFTA, and the UK) in November – 10,000 fewer vehicles than last year.

Year-to-date, Tesla is at 282,700 vehicles compared to 327,600 vehicles during the same period last year. That’s down 13.7% year-over-year despite Tesla slashing prices and fully ramping up Model Y production at its local Berlin plant.

In comparison, BEV sales in Europe are down 1.4%.

If you remove Tesla from the equation, BEV sales are actually up 1.3%.

France (-24.4%) and Germany (-21.8%) are the markets where EVs are truly hurting, but the overall EU BEV market is still far ahead of the US:

Electrek’s Take

I think the data is clear: Europe has a Tesla problem, not a BEV problem. Yes, incentives went down in several markets and BEV sales went down in those markets.

However, Tesla adjusted pricing down to compensate and overall non-Tesla BEV sales are up, which points to the competition being a bigger problem for Tesla in Europe.

EV fans should be worried. In Europe, I’m hoping things will stabilize now that they are relying less on Tesla.

But the US is more worrying. Tesla’s sales are mostly flat in the US despite price cuts, strong federal incentives, and adding Cybertruck to the lineup.

If Trump and Musk have their way, the US will remove the federal incentive, and it will crash Tesla’s sales and, consequently, overall BEV sales.

Musk’s hope is that the lack of incentive will affect other EV automakers even more, leading them to fail and leaving them with a larger part of the EV market in the US – despite the overall EV market being smaller.

It’s such a bad strategy. The competition is the gas-powered cars, not EVs.

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