Friday, November 22, 2024

Sign of slowing economy as budget and weather meant surprise fall in retail sales

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Budget fears and unseasonably warm weather meant consumers spent far less than expected last month, according to official figures.

In a sign of a slowing economy, retail sales fell a sharp 0.7%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

A drop of 0.3% was forecasted by economists polled by the Reuters news agency.

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The main fall off in buying was in clothing stores, which fell by 3.1% over the month as October temperatures remained high. Retailers across the board, however, reported consumers held back on spending ahead of the budget, the ONS added.

Just a month earlier, in September, spending rose 0.1%. Despite the October fall, the ONS pointed out that the trend is for sales increases on a yearly and three-monthly basis and for them to be lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Retail sales figures are significant as household consumption measured by the data is the largest expenditure across the UK economy.

The data can also help track how consumers feel about their financial position and the economy more broadly.

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Another signal of a slowing economy was the latest growth figures which showed a smaller-than-expected GDP (gross domestic product) measurement.

Rebounding already

Also released on Friday was news of a rise in consumer confidence in the weeks following the budget and the US election.

Market research company GfK’s long-running consumer confidence index “jumped” in November, the company said as people intended to make Black Friday purchases.

It noted that inflation has yet to be tamed with people still feeling acute cost-of-living pressures.

It will take time for the UK’s new government to deliver on its promise of change, it added.

A quirk in the figures

Economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the dates included in the ONS’s retail sales figures could have distorted the headline figure.

The half-term break, during which spending typically increases, was excluded from the monthly statistics as the cut-off point was 26 October. Typically midterm is included in the data.

With cold weather gripping the UK this week clothing sales are likely to rise as delayed clothing purchases are bought, Pantheon added.

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