Sesko price increase analysed as Arsenal miss out on bargain transfer

On January 19, 2024, Benjamin Sesko had not managed to justify the hype over his transfer from Red Bull-owned Salzburg to Leipzig. He had managed just three goals in 15 Bundesliga matches, only scoring in two separate games, and had started five times.

Having moved for just over £20million last year, he was failing to show why he had already been touted as one of the best young forwards in the world. His 16 goals and four assists in 30 Austrian Bundesliga games the year before had attracted attention.

As a teenager, he managed 21 goals in 29 appearances for FC Liefering in the Austrian second division, announcing himself as someone to be tracked. As is only natural with players at the start of their senior career, it is not always a straight line to the top.

What Sesko went on to demonstrate is exactly why he is one of the biggest stories to watch over the summer transfer window. A run of 11 goals between January 20 and May 18 – a stretch of 16 games – put him right back in the conversation as an elite talent.

In that period he only failed to contribute with a goal or an assist three times. In the last six weeks he scored in each of the final seven games. Only twice all season did Leipzig fail to win in matches that he scored.

It leaves him with 14 goals and two assists from his debut Bundesliga season, all from just 17 starts. He also managed two in the Champions League and another two in the German Cup. In total it left his average for the 2023/24 campaign at a goal per 109 minutes, and with assists that was a contribution every 95.

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His performances also took his release clause from a modest £43million to a sizeable £55million. It hasn’t yet put off Arsenal – or Chelsea, Manchester United, and the other teams prowling around for him. He is now set to be at the centre of one of the sagas of the summer.

With Mikel Arteta keen to bring in a new striker at Arsenal after his centre-forward options largely failed to deliver – although Kai Havertz did finish strongly it’s still debatable just how much he can be considered an orthodox option – Sesko is top of the list. Meanwhile, Eddie Nketiah (five league goals, three of those in one game) and Gabriel Jesus (four league goals and an injury-hit season) are both facing questions over their role in the team moving forward.

Sesko for £55million is the man they want. The unfortunate matter is that if they had backed his talent even 12 months earlier then he could have been signed for a snip of the price.

Chelsea were watching him last summer before a move to Leipzig came about, and Transfermarkt valued him at just over £20million at the time – similar to the price he eventually went for. That figure quickly shot up though as he gained experience and become a more important member.

Even without scoring the goals he ended with, Sesko has seen his market value move to over £26million by October. In March that was in advance of £35million.

The end-of-season run now has him at £43million, which was his previous release clause. However, that is nothing in comparison to where CIES football observatory have him.

The analysis site has estimated his true value to be at £88.1million instead. That is above Arsenal teammate Declan Rice, transfer target Alexander Isak, and Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson as well as Gavi from Barcelona, Evan Ferguson, Victor Osimhen, Lautaro Martinez, Marcus Rashford, long-term option Dusan Vlahovic, Ollie Watkins, Viktor Gyokeres, and more.

This certainly suggests that Arsenal would be getting Sesko for a very good price if they were to agree a deal for the current £55million release clause demand. Although it could turn out to be a wise investment it also shows just how much a player can shoot up in value over a small period. It is a huge £66million jump from what he was valued 12 months ago to the player there now.

Had Arsenal taken a risk with Sesko last year and nurtured him under Arteta, then they may have had a world-class striker in the waiting at a cut-price fee. As it happens they will now have to fork out more to match the price that comes with hype and form.

There is a caveat with this as well. Although Seko’s sprint finish was impressive, the underlying numbers carry a warning. Only Serhou Guirassy – Stuttgart’s goal machine – had a larger non-penalty xG overperformance last season. In essence, Sesko scored six goals more than expected from the quality of chances he had.

His xG per shot was also not majorly high, which indicated he is not only on a hot streak in front of goal but also that he is taking low percentage attempts as well. This is not necessarily a bad thing, Son Heung-min has become a master finisher, often outperforming his xG by wild amounts on a consistent basis, but with such a small sample size it does not immediately translate to Premier League success.

Harry Kane, for example, managed 36 goals for Bayern in the league but only outperformed his xG by 2.8. At Leipzig the next biggest overperformer was Lois Openda with 2.3, and he managed 24 goals.

Openda takes more shots per90 than Sesko – though he does not hit the target as much from those shots and also has a lower goals per shots on target figure. Not to say that this is a red flag for Sesko, but it is worth considering when a move is weighed up.