Toropets burns.
Via social media
In the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday, a large flock of Ukrainian drones winged north from Ukraine all the way to Toropets, a town in western Russian that hosts the 107th Arsenal, a sprawling ammunition dump feeding the Russian force fighting in Ukraine, 300 miles to the south.
The arsenal exploded with enough force to register as a small earthquake, draw the attention of NASA fire-spotting satellites and compel local authorities to order an evacuation of nearby residents. A lot of Russian munitions went up in flames.
Which munitions is unclear. According to Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight, the arsenal stored 122-millimeter rockets, 82-millimeter mortar bombs and 7.62-millimeter ammunition for rifles and machine guns.
But it’s also possible the arsenal contained stocks of much more powerful and rare weapons. Official sources told RBC-Ukraine these stocks included S-300 air-defense missiles and Iskander and KN-23 ballistic missiles—the latter made by North Korea. The Russians use the S-300s, Islanders and KN-23s to bombard Ukrainian cities and electrical infrastructure from hundreds of miles away.
That so many of Russia’s best munitions were reportedly concentrated in a single location explains why Ukraine devoted such a large force to the attack. RBC-Ukraine claimed more than 100 drones were involved—potentially making the Toropets raid the biggest Ukrainian strike on a target inside Russia since Russia widened its war on Ukraine 30 months ago.
“Without exaggeration, this is a very significant achievement,” Frontelligence Insight explained. “We’re likely looking at the loss of thousands of tons of explosive materials, shells and rockets.”
The most optimistic scenario for Russia is that only a few ballistic missiles were at Toropets—and any that were lost can eventually be replaced, perhaps by that initial batch of missiles coming from Iran. The worst case for Russia is that it just lost a significant portion of its best munitions for attacks deep inside Ukraine.
For Ukraine, the Toropets raid could represent a turning point. For many months, officials in Kyiv have pleaded with their European and American counterparts for permission to use donated long-range munitions—British Storm Shadow and French SCALP-EG cruise missiles and American Army Tactical Missile System rockets—on targets deep inside Russia, including munitions stockpiles.
But the Europeans and Americans have consistently withheld that permission, even as the civilian death toll from Russia’s own deep strikes has mounted.
Clearly frustrated, the Ukrainians have doubled down on the production of locally-developed weapons—drones and missiles—that they can fire at targets inside Russia without asking anyone’s permission first.
In blowing up the Toropets arsenal, those homemade weapons may have struck their biggest blow yet—and saved potentially scores of Ukrainian lives by preventing future Russian attacks. “A very important result was achieved,” Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelensky said just hours after Toropets exploded.