Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has warned of “nuclear escalation” in response to Nato governments stepping up support for Ukraine, with France reportedly suggesting troops could be deployed by member nations to Ukraine within days.
Mr Lavrov told Russian state media on Thursday that planned tactical nuclear exercises with Belarus should “sensitise” Ukraine’s allies to the risk of “catastrophic consequences of further advancement on the ladder of nuclear escalation”.
Russia’s top diplomat further claimed that the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine from several European nations marked a “deliberate signalling action by Nato in the nuclear sphere” as “F-16 fighter jets have long been the main delivery vehicle in the framework of the so-called Nato joint nuclear missions”.
The warning followed commitments by several Nato countries to increase supplies of military aid to Kyiv, and to allow the weapons to be used to strike targets inside Russia.
The US has yet to follow suit, despite growing pressure from allies and within the Biden administration. Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State, said on Wednesday that America could “adapt and adjust” policies to changes on the battlefield.
Kyiv has complained that Russia is launching attacks from within its territory using assets that Ukrainian forces cannot target.
Washington has issued a rebuke to Ukraine over attacks on Russian radar stations thought to serve as early warning systems against a nuclear attack.
“These sites have not been involved in supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine,” a US official told the Washington Post. “But they are sensitive locations because Russia could perceive that its strategic deterrent capabilities are being targeted, which could undermine Russia’s ability to maintain nuclear deterrence against the United States.
“Russia could think it has a diminished ability to detect early nuclear activity against it, which then could become an issue.”
The strikes have greater sensitivity due to Russia’s belief that the US is providing targeting information. Washington has previously acknowledged sharing intelligence to guide strikes, including against Russian flagship Moskva in April 2022.
Nato nations could deploy troops to Ukraine for the first time in “a matter of weeks, or even days”, French daily Le Monde reported on Thursday, citing official sources.
“French authorities are trying to put together a coalition of willing countries to train Ukrainian forces besieged by the Russian army,” the newspaper reported.
“Consultations on this subject are likely to accelerate in the next few days, with a view to a possible announcement when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits France to mark the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings on 6 and 7 June.”
France’s President, Emmanuel Macron, previously raised the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine. He did not comment on questions over potential plans at a press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday.
The mission would initially involve “a few dozen specialists to identify training needs,” Le Monde reported. “Then, in a second phase, a mission of several hundred soldiers. The idea is to train deminers, or even… to train the soldiers of a new motorised brigade.”
Russian newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda – which has close ties to the Kremlin – reported on Thursday that Nato troops in Ukraine will be targeted, suggesting that plans are advanced.
“Nato instructors and troops will become a legitimate target for Russia on Ukrainian territory. With such a warning, the leadership of our country has repeatedly tried to cool the hot heads of hawks in the West,” it reported.
“Now, it seems, we have moved from words to action. On Wednesday night the Russian army launched a massive attack on targets in the Lviv region. Including the Yavorovsky training ground, which is only 24 kilometres from the Ukrainian-Polish border, where Western mercenaries are traditionally stationed.”
A Russian missile strike on the same base in March 2022 killed dozens of Ukrainian and international legion soldiers.
Some European officials have raised concerns that sending Nato soldiers to Ukraine could heighten escalation risks.
Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, said this month that Nato casualties in Ukraine would not lead to the invocation of the Article Five mutual defence clause, and claimed unnamed countries have already deployed troops in undeclared capacities.
Anton Barbashin, editorial director of Russian political analysis journal Riddle, told i Russia’s threats were likely to be directed at citizens in Western nations.
“They are trying to come up with ideas to signal to the West, and appeal to the Western public, that [the war] can only be resolved in a way that would satisfy Russia, otherwise the risks are there and you will be in the middle of it,” he said. “Russia feels more assertive because of the situation on the ground with Ukraine lacking ammunition and hardware.”
Ukraine’s allies have crossed many of Russia’s previously stated red lines, Mr Barbashin added, such as sending tanks, jets, and long-range missiles. The real red line that could change Russia’s risk calculation is further back, he suggested.
“If you had a Nato air base being used for air strikes in Ukraine and Russia… say Ukrainian pilots were flying from Poland with F-16s and taking down Russian planes, that would be a major difference,” he said.
Ilya Kramnik, a researcher at Moscow think-tank the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, suggested the situation was more dangerous due to Nato countries believing the conflict will remain contained and “low cost” for them.
“In the event that Western long-range weapons are used against military targets on Russian territory outside the default combat zone [Ukraine within its 1991 borders], the conflict will quickly acquire a completely different scale and character from what it is now,” he said.
A UK intelligence source told i: “It would be foolish to completely ignore the danger that Russia poses, especially the nuclear danger, but I think we have seen many of these threats many times before. We have got Western tanks all over the battlefield now but it was not so long ago that Putin was saying that would be a red line, and the result would be reprisals on the West and of course they never came. The same with Storm Shadow, ATACMS and with attacking Crimea.
“So, my position is this is more posturing… I think in the future perhaps Putin may raise the stakes but I think at the moment we don’t see that and I think it’s posturing, bluffing.”
Max Hess, a Eurasia scholar and author at the Foreign Policy Research Institute think tank, believes Mr Lavrov’s threats should be considered empty rhetoric and intimidation tactics.
“The Kremlin repeatedly engages in this kind of bellicose rhetoric, but what they state publicly does not mean it is what they are actually doing,” he said. “The West must remember that deterring Russia from further war can only successfully be achieved by maintaining a steadfast alliance and supporting partners like Ukraine.”
Additional reporting by Richard Holmes