Russia is losing influence in Georgia and the South Caucasus to its allies China and Iran, a new report claims.
It comes as thousands of protesters clashed with police on the streets of Tbilisi to oppose ruling party Georgian Dream’s decision to freeze talks on the country’s long standing bid to join the EU until 2028.
For more than 30 years Moscow has been able to leverage various conflicts in the region to make itself a security guarantor.
That image was already seriously dented in the eyes of neighbouring states by Russia’s appalling military performance in Ukraine, which has seen what was intended to be a lightning four-day conquest turn into a protracted two-and-half-year conflict with tens of thousands of casualties.
However, more damaging still – according to a new report by the RUSI think tank – is the increasing influence of China and Iran, which had been contained by Russia’s influence, but which now, despite their alliance with Moscow, are taking advantage of the vacuum.
Along with Turkey, their engagement in the South Caucasus has strengthened the region’s ties with Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia to the detriment of both Russia and the West.
Russia is now scrambling to reset its position by focussing on other areas such as transport and communications, but it has a steep hill to climb.
“There is a real prospect that the Kremlin’s efforts to forge a renewed regional role may prove unsuccessful, and Moscow may emerge from the process of realignment a significantly reduced regional force,” said the reports author Dr Neil Melvin , RUSI’s Director of International Security.
The Russia-friendly Georgian Dream party swept into power recently following controversial elections which were mired by corruption.
But this does not signify the win that Russia claims.
“While Georgian Dream is considered pro-Russia, actually it is playing both sides against each other to maintain its independence and power base – it has no desire to become a Russian vassal, so it makes assurances about not aligning itself with the West.”
Equally, Russia’s loss of influence doesn’t spell good news for the West.
“For two decades now, the Euro-Atlantic community has essentially promised to Georgia that if it got its act together, it could join the EU and Nato. The people on the streets last week were reflecting that promise,“ he said.
“But the West is unwilling to cross the red lines that Russia laid down in 2008, so I believe these are hollow promises now.
“If the Euro-Atlantic community is to undercut Russia’s effort to build a new position and retain a significant regional role, it will need to develop approaches capable of responding to and shaping the new South Caucasus geopolitics and geo-economics.”
Regional expert Nathalie Vogel, of the institute of World Politics, said: “Those who are protesting represent Georgia’s modern educated elite with experience of the West, but this is not the overwhelming majority who live far from the capital in rural areas.
“Georgian Dream claims they are the only party to protect Georgian from a Ukraine-like war and this is a reassuring message for the undedicated who have no access to the internet and don’t follow the news. “m