After opposition forces took Syria’s second-biggest city of Aleppo in a surprise offensive, photographs showed a person draping a Turkish flag over the wall of the medieval citadel. It appeared to be the act of a lone individual, but the image was picked up by pro-government Turkish media as a symbol of the sway Ankara has long wielded in its neighbour’s civil war.
The 13-year conflict reignited late last week when the rebels, led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), moved into Aleppo on Friday with little resistance. Turkish-backed factions, which are co-ordinating with HTS, then launched an assault on Sunday on the strategically important northern town of Tel Rifaat, controlled by Syrian Kurdish forces.
The dramatic rebel advance has put a renewed spotlight on Turkey’s role in the shattered Arab state, where for years it has been the main backer of rebels who rose up against President Bashar al-Assad in 2011.
Unlike other Syrian rebel factions, HTS is not directly backed by Turkey. But analysts say the offensive is unlikely to have taken place without the tacit acquiescence of Ankara, and could strengthen President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s influence in any future negotiations with Assad and his backers, Russia and Iran.
“Without Turkey’s green light, this operation would never be possible,” said Gönül Tol, a director at the Middle East Institute in Washington and author of a book on Turkey’s role in the Syrian war.
“Turkey saw an opportunity to change the dynamics on the ground, weaken Assad’s hand and demonstrate to the next US administration it can curb Iranian influence effectively,” she said.
Neither Erdoğan nor other officials have confirmed Turkish involvement, with foreign minister Hakan Fidan on Monday telling reporters that “it would be wrong to explain away the events in Syria as a foreign intervention”.
But the offensive has provided Turkey with an opportunity to mobilise allied factions to push back against Kurdish forces it considers an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), a separatist group that has been fighting the Turkish state for decades. Preventing the Kurdish militants from amassing on Turkey’s border has been the prime motivation for Erdoğan’s decision to intervene in Syria in recent years.
Before the rebel offensive, Ankara had expressed deep frustration with Assad’s refusal to negotiate with the Syrian opposition. Damascus rebuffed rare overtures from Erdoğan this year to mend ties that had been severed after Turkey sided with the rebels in 2011.
Turkey is ultimately the protector of Idlib, the north-western Syrian province that is HTS’s stronghold. It has also deployed thousands of Turkish troops and armed and trained rebel factions, known collectively as the Syrian National Army, in parts of north-west and northern Syria that are under Turkish control.
While it labels HTS as a terrorist group, Turkey plays a vital role ensuring the survival of the rebels’ enclave. HTS and the SNA, which have previously clashed with each other, have co-ordinated for the latest offensive, analysts say.
One of Turkey’s aims has been to pressure the US to end its support for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in north-east Syria — a perennial source of friction between the Nato allies. The US has backed the SDF as its key Syrian partner in the battle against Isis and it has about 900 troops deployed in Syria.
President-elect Donald Trump was sympathetic to Erdoğan’s demands during his first term, but his incoming administration may now view withdrawing US troops as a concession to Iran.
Erdoğan has also crafted a complex partnership in Syria with Russian President Vladimir Putin, despite the two supporting opposite sides in the war. Turkey and Russia reached a ceasefire deal for Idlib in March 2020, which brought a semblance of stability to the area, and both will be integral to determining what happens next.
“We had this image of the Turks that they are usually considerate of Russian interests,” said Hanna Notte, director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies. “I don’t think Putin is too pleased with this . . . but maybe both of them did not think this [offensive] would go this far.”
Mindful of its balancing act with Moscow, Ankara has refrained from directly intervening in the latest fighting. Can Acun, a foreign policy researcher at Ankara’s Seta think-tank, said Turkey even restrained the opposition from responding sooner to recent attacks by Syrian government forces and Russian warplanes on Idlib.
But in recent weeks, Erdoğan revived his threats of a new direct Turkish military offensive against the SDF. “Our will to solve terrorism at its source is stronger than ever,” he said on Saturday. “We will not hesitate to take new steps.”
Ilham Ahmed of the UK-based Syrian Democratic Council, the SDF’s political wing, said in a statement that Kurdish communities and other minority groups were “facing an increasingly precarious situation in northern Syria” after the offensive.
Erdoğan has also promised that the 3.2mn Syrians who sought shelter in Turkey, a fraught political issue that appears to have cost his Justice and Development party votes in local elections this year, will return to their own country.
His vice-president, Cevdet Yılmaz, told members of the ruling party on Sunday that Turkey now expected a political resolution that will see refugees go home.
But a former Turkish diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned that Turkey may instead face a new refugee crisis. Nearly 50,000 people have been displaced in the latest clashes, according to a UN official on Sunday.
“Creating a heroic narrative that Turkey, or its proxies, can take control of Aleppo is directed at nationalist sentiment, but we may sink in the mud,” the diplomat said, adding that Turkey risked harming its relations with both the west and Russia.
Fidan said Turkey did not want the war to escalate and displace more people and he called again for Iran and Russia to encourage dialogue between Damascus and the opposition.
But the time for talks may now be lost, said the diplomat: “This is a political fantasy. We don’t even know whether Assad still has the political authority to fulfil Turkey’s expectations when it appears he doesn’t even have an army.”
Additional reporting by Raya Jalabi in Beirut
Cartography by Steven Bernard