The short-lived coup launched by warlord Yevgeny Prighozin laid bare one weakness of Russia, a geopolitical expert has suggested – and hints at the real reason why Vladimir Putin is horrified at the thought of Ukraine joining NATO.
Matt Shoemaker, a US former intelligence officer, didn’t find it surprising that Vladimir Putin included in its recent ceasefire proposal to Ukraine a demand for the country to ditch its aspirations to join the 32-country strong military alliance.
Similar terms, Mr Shoemaker noted, have been issued by the Kremlin over the past two years, with Ukraine‘s NATO membership being Putin’s “geopolitical prime goal”.
Explaining why he believes the Russian despot harbours such an aversion to the expansion of NATO, he said: “NATO membership is the geopolitical prime goal Putin has because of southwestern Russia’s vast flatland would be near impossible to defend Moscow.”
This, the expert added, was “made all the more obvious” during the Wagner Group‘s rebellion in June last year.
At the time, the mercenary troops entered the southwestern city of Rostov-on-Don with tanks and armoured vehicles. From there, some began a march on Moscow, which rang alarm bells in the Kremlin.
Upon announcing the beginning of the “special military operation” in Ukraine – as the Kremlin still refers to the war – Putin mentioned the “expansion of NATO to the east” among the main reasons.
The unlawful and unprovoked war in Ukraine produced the opposite effect intended by Putin, as the Western military alliance gained two new members since the invasion began – Sweden and Finland.
Ukraine started increasingly seeking NATO membership after war erupted in the Donbas region and Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014.
The country formally applied for membership in September 2022, but the alliance hasn’t yet set a clear path and timeline for its accession.
Putin’s ceasefire terms were extended last week, hours before the beginning of a peace summit in Switzerland aiming to show the widespread support Ukraine still enjoys and delineate a path towards peace.
The proposal was rejected by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as it also demanded Kyiv to give up four of its eastern regions.