“Choosing the Emirates as an arena for action is a statement in itself,” said Mr Ailam. “This is a very complex target, a country that excels in advanced security mechanisms, including a network of smart cameras and sophisticated surveillance software.
“In addition, the Emirates boasts an effective security system, although it has not always proven its effectiveness, and allies such as Israel and the United States. The choice to operate there specifically indicates Iranian desperation and a willingness to risk a harsh diplomatic response from the UAE.”
The UAE and Iran reopened diplomatic ties in 2022. Intelligence agents would be probing any links between Iran and the killers, Mr Ailam noted.
“It is not surprising that at this stage the authorities in the UAE are refraining from public statements attacking Iran, and are devoting their efforts to clandestine activity. The assumption is that they are focusing on trying to locate the culprits,” he said.
“Along with the intensive activity of the local authorities, it can be assumed that Mossad and the CIA are also cooperating in the investigation. If Iran is indeed indicted, it will be another blow to its international image.
“It is important to remember that for Iran, such a move is not only an attack on Israel but also an attempt to undermine Israel’s relations with the Gulf states, especially in light of the Abraham Accords.”
‘Vulnerable target’
Ronen Solomon, an Israeli security analyst, said Mr Kogan was a vulnerable target. His number was accessible as he managed Dubai’s kosher supermarket, and with his routine of travelling from his home in Abu Dhabi to Dubai each day. His photo, albeit taken from behind, was also used on the supermarket’s website.
“It’s very easy to connect with him under the guise of being a Jewish tourist looking for kosher food, community events, and generally intelligence gathering,” Mr Solomon told The Telegraph.
Asher Ben Artzi, Israel’s former head of Interpol, said that in spite of the deal between Israel and the UAE, the high presence of Iranians in the country makes it high risk. Since the war in Gaza, Israel counts it as a medium-level threat and has reminded citizens to avoid it for anything other than essential travel.
“Iranian intelligence is very active there and invests great efforts in locating Israelis who will be the target of an attack,” he told The Telegraph. “They don’t always act by themselves, many times they use agents and sources they recruit. Iranian intelligence operates with great boldness and ‘insolence’.”
The UAE has announced that three Uzbek nationals are now suspected of involvement in the case.