Reputational risk no longer worth it for Qatar
Qatar had taken a lot of heat for its association with Hamas but stuck it out in the hope it could help broker a ceasefire deal with Israel.
Doha was regularly the venue for talks and Qatar’s leaders invested considerable time trying to bring Israel and Hamas to an agreement.
Although some accused Qatar of harbouring terrorists, it suited the US, and Israel, to have the Hamas political leadership in a friendly country.
There was some success – a seven-day truce in November 2023 which saw the release of more than 100 hostages in exchange for 240 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
But further ceasefire attempts have repeatedly failed, Hamas’s leadership has been steadily killed off one by one, and so the reputational cost of hosting the group was deemed no longer worth it.
Hamas was only in Qatar with the approval of the United States, and it’s now been asked to leave at the request of Washington. It is a significant shift in policy from the Gulf state.
But Qatari officials have also lost patience, pointedly blaming both sides for the failure to reach a deal.
In a message also aimed at Benjamin Netanyahu, a diplomatic source briefed on the matter told Sky News both Israel and Hamas “refused to participate in the negotiations except on their conditions, without showing willingness to engage constructively”.
Hamas will likely relocate to Turkey (where they already have a presence) or Iran, although there have been reports officials were recently in Algeria and Mauritania.
It will be seen as a huge blow to the hostage families in Israel, signifying that the sides have given up hope of securing a deal.
That isn’t necessarily the case – the eviction of Hamas from their cosy homes in Doha is partly a final attempt to pressure them into an agreement, but even if they do leave, Egypt could continue to play a mediating role.
That said, Hamas’s leadership in Gaza is in some disarray, the Biden administration is weak and in its final days, and the geo-politics of negotiating a deal if the group moves to Tehran will be incredibly complex.