Monday, November 18, 2024

Putin’s nuclear weapons are redundant with Ukraine allowed to use US Atacms in Russia

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Eventually, Joe Biden has realised that the only way to prevent Ukraine’s defeat by Russia is to take off the ridiculous restrictions imposed on battle-winning long-range missiles – let us pray it is not too late.

Politicians always make decisions at the last possible moment so that they avoid risk, most especially to themselves rather than those valiant warriors like the Ukraine army.

But in military parlance, late decisions are often the worst type, as the enemy has already had time to react once an intention to act has been signalled – in this case about 12 months ago since Atacms and Storm Shadow were gifted to Kyiv.

This is the president’s swan song, and nothing is going to save his presidency, so he now commits to the fight, but better late than never!

Let’s hope Sir Keir Starmer breaks the political mould and, rather than think of his own re-election in four years’ time, thinks of Ukraine today and the best way to prevent war in Europe by also unshackling the use of the British Storm Shadow missiles.

There has been much gnashing of teeth in Moscow that this decision will lead to escalation to nuclear weapons.

This is wilful hubris in the extreme, as actually it now means that Putin cannot use his tactical nuclear weapons, as their potential launch sites are now all well within range of Atacms and Storm Shadow – if indeed Ukraine receives permission to use the latter.

In effect, Russian tactical nuclear weapons are redundant, be that missile delivered or from Russian bombers.

They have a range of around 400 miles maximum, therefore, to get any penetration into Ukraine especially to attack cities, which seems to be what Russian hawks are calling for, will require launch very close to the Ukraine border, now easy pickings for Ukraine.

It is very clear that US and UK intelligence assets know exactly where these nuclear weapons are stored and can track their every movement.

Ukraine can now obliterate these airfields and potential launch sites. Putin knows an own goal like this would hasten his demise quicker than anything else.

As discussed before, it is possibly Putin’s other WMD, chemical weapons, which Ukraine and the West must be most wary of.

Russia is currently using industrial amounts of the low-level chemical weapon Chloropicrin, to great effect on the frontlines in the Donbas.

If they escalated to their most deadly nerve agent Novichok, which they have already used in my hometown of Salisbury, they could kill thousands in Ukraine and beyond.

Hopefully, our intelligence on their chemical weapons is as good as on their nuclear weapons and with Atacms and possibly Storm Shadow and more, the Russians will also be deterred from using them, as a direct hit on a missile full of Novichok would most likely destroy it and only affect the Russians in the vicinity of the missile.

To most of us, it has been incongruous that the US and UK have shot down Iranian missiles fired at Israeli cities, but not Russian missiles fired at Ukrainian infrastructure and towns.

After all, it is much more likely that if things go badly in Ukraine the UK will be dragged into a direct war than if things go badly in the Middle East.

The next step must be to investigate whether British and US fighter jets can do this from outside Russian and Ukrainian air space.

Kursk is now the vital ground in this war, and whoever holds it by Christmas will probably be on the front foot for any ceasefire negotiations that President Trump is hinting at post his inauguration on 20 January.

Russia is investing huge efforts in preparing 50,000 troops, including thousands of North Koreans to counterattack into Kursk.

But all those troops and their equipment must feel in a perilous position sitting in their harbour areas and forming up points, now knowing they are well in range of Ukrainian precision missile attacks.

This is exacerbated by Putin withdrawing a lot of air defence assets from the frontline to protect Russian cities and his palaces.

Throughout this war, bought on entirely by Putin’s illegal invasion, the West’s drip-feeding of military capability has only prolonged the agony for Ukraine’s people.

Hopefully, now especially. those timid leaders who have cow-tailed to Putin, realise that his threats of nuclear attack, after 1,000 days of threats, are meaningless and completely without substance.

This must embolden all who support democracy and freedom and they must give every military capability to Ukraine to ensure it can be on the front foot in any future ceasefire negotiations.

Putin will remain a threat to us all until he is kicked out of Ukraine.

Hamish de Bretton-Gordon is a retired British Army colonel and former Commanding Officer of 1st Royal Tank Regiment and the Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Regiment.

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