On 12 September 2024 President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, spoke of war between NATO and Russia during a speech in St Petersburg. Talking in relation to the lifting of restrictions of NATO long-range missiles in the Russo-Ukrainian war, Putin stated: “This will mean that NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia.”
The use of Western weaponry in the Russo-Ukrainian war has been controversial since the onset of war, with factions both within NATO and in Russia being opposed to it. Russia views Western aid as both an escalation and an obstacle to progress along the frontlines. Viewing aid as such a threat, Putin is eager to dissuade Western allies from providing more serious aid, such as the aforementioned long range missiles. To do this, Putin is playing Western fears of escalation off against NATO’s obligation to continue supporting Ukraine militarily, keeping the language used in line with previous threats.
Additionally, this language used by Putin during this speech remains intentionally vague, an outline of a great Russo-NATO war is nothing new for Russian or Western headlines. Just weeks later, on 25 September, Putin publicly changed the nuclear doctrine of Russia to include “joint attacks” by non-nuclear powers being supported by nuclear powers. These threats seem to be more and more common, whilst still using the nondescript language of an unsure regime. The use of these threats pander to the illusions of greatness that Putin, himself believes, even when Russia is unable to reach its geopolitical goals. The extent to which this language should be taken seriously depends on both the modern and historical context of the Russian-NATO conflict.
This particular type of language has a long history in east-west relations, dating back into the Cold War (1945-1991) and the similar political stalemates of the time. Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev demonstrated this in 1956, when he told Western diplomats: “Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!” While more extreme than any threats Putin has released, it is easy to see the inspiration behind the more recent Soviet Premiers threats.
In modern times, the ongoing war in Ukraine has reached a crucial phase for the West and Ukraine. Russia has recently had to resort to using human wave tactics, nicknamed “meat assaults” by Ukrainian forces, to gain just metres of ground in the Kharkiv region. This lack of progress taints Russia’s international prestige, making Putin more and more desperate in his announcements. To add insult to injury, Ukraine has recently been able to invade Russia’s own territory, capturing 1,200 sq km of Kursk Oblast, whilst also still contesting Russian advances elsewhere. Capturing this land makes Ukraine appear to be successful in its goal of victory, and also makes Russia appear unable to defend its own territory, making it more reactive and potentially aggressive internationally.
Russia’s threat towards NATO has potentially serious implications for the West. Despite this, it is clear to see through context that this language is somewhat common, particularly in the face of serious setbacks for Russia. Furthermore, this threat appears to have failed to dissuade Western lifting of missile restrictions, leading us to question the effectiveness of these threats internationally.