Putin is also in his strongest position since his initial invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. His armies are on the front foot on the battlefields and his industry is outproducing Ukraine’s allies for arms and weapons, vital in a war that has descended into a slugging match.
However, the sources said that Putin was genuine about pushing for a ceasefire because he has become wary of the cost of the war and believes that he can sell territorial gains as a “win” to Russians.
“Putin will say that we won, that Nato attacked us and we kept our sovereignty, that we have a land corridor to Crimea, which is true,” said one.
Three sources said Putin understood any dramatic new advances would require another nationwide mobilisation, which he did not want, with one source, who knows the Russian president, saying his popularity dipped after the first mobilisation in September 2022.
Ceasefire contradicts nuclear push
Russia now occupies around 18 per cent of Ukraine, including Crimea which it annexed in 2014, but the Kremlin has failed to capture the whole of any other region despite promoting the conquest of the eastern region of Donbas as a priority.
This month, Russian forces launched an attack towards Kharkiv in the northeast of the country for the first time since it was routed from the outskirts of the city in 2022.
Putin has previously said that he is interested in finding a ceasefire to the fighting in Ukraine, including during a visit this month to China, Russia’s most important economic ally.