If the Kremlin was hoping to instill fear among its Western foes by lowering the bar for its use of nuclear weapons, then it may have been disappointed Wednesday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s broadened nuclear doctrine appeared to be a thinly veiled threat to the United States and its allies over their ramped-up support for Ukraine.
The updated document includes a change that allows for Moscow to launch a nuclear strike if attacked by a nonnuclear country, such as Ukraine, that is supported by a nuclear state, such as the U.S. It was formally approved the same day that Kyiv used its first U.S.-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles against Russia.
But while the chances of Putin deploying a devastating nuclear weapon in his war with Ukraine are never nil, world leaders and analysts alike expressed doubts that the change amounted to much more than a new and more intense effort to deter the West.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told NBC News that he saw no indication that Moscow is imminently intent on using nuclear weapons.
“I don’t see a change in their strategic force posture and so we’ll continue to remain vigilant in this regard,” he said on the 1,000th day since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor.
“He has rattled his nuclear saber quite a bit and this is dangerous behavior,” Austin said of Putin.
Kyiv’s allies in Europe were just as unmoved in public as Washington.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told a news conference in Brazil on Tuesday that the “irresponsible rhetoric coming from Russia … is not going to deter our support for Ukraine.” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot dismissed Putin’s decision as “rhetoric,” adding that “we are not intimidated.” European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also condemned Putin’s threat of nuclear escalation as “completely irresponsible.”
The Kremlin seemed eager to play up the idea of rising tensions.
Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the state news agency Tass on Wednesday that a special hotline designed to calm crises between the Kremlin and the White House is not currently in use.
But behind those remarks from Western officials lies a sense that the change to Russia’s nuclear doctrine constitutes a propaganda tool — backed by a powerful arsenal but weakened by its repeated use — rather than any dramatic shift in Moscow’s plans, experts told NBC News.
“Russia’s move will tie in with the campaign by its backers in the West to paint the easing of restrictions on ATACMS strikes into Russia as a dangerous escalation,” said Keir Giles, senior consulting fellow with the London-based think-tank Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia program.
“Since there’s little Russia can do in response in practical terms, it turns to threatening language on paper to undermine the resolve of the outgoing Biden administration. That’s understandable — direct and indirect nuclear threats have been so effective in the past in deterring Biden from backing Ukraine fully, that it would be disappointing for Moscow if this latest move didn’t make a difference,” Giles told NBC News.
The Biden administration’s reversal on letting Kyiv use long-range American weapons for limited strikes inside Russia followed months of pleading from Ukraine and warnings of dire consequences from Moscow.