Putin now targets four more countries after being wounded by Western sanctions

Russia is leveraging its oil wealth to deepen ties in Latin America as Western sanctions leave Russia isolated on the international stage, a new report claims.

A study from think tank The Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD) says the Kremlin has been focussing its geopolitical strategy on countries like Venezuela, Brazil and Bolivia, exploiting the countries’ vulernabilies to build reliance on Russian trade.

The European public policy institute presented the report, entitled: “Russia‘s Global Reach: The Kremlin Playbook in Latin America,” on Wednesday, with analysis of how Russia‘s economic and political influence in the region has intensified in the region in recent years, Infobae reports.

The report suggests Vladimir Putin‘s government has redirected attention to Latin America since sanctions imposed by allies of Ukraine including the US and the UK cut Russia‘s economic growth and forced it to find alternative supply lines.

In a presentation of the study, Germán Rueda Orejarena, one of the authors of the report and a member of the CSD’s Energy and Climate program, said though trade has grown between Russia and Latin America over the past 10 years, the figures continue to be relatively small from a global perspective.

The expert says it accounts for just two percent of Russia’s total trade with the world and around 0.7 percent of Latin America’s, and is equivalent to around $20billion (some £15billion).

Seventy-five percent of Russia‘s total trade in Latin America is with Brazil, its largest trading partner in the region, according to the research. But the reliance of various countries in the area on imports in key sectors including energy, arms and fertilisers is considerable, Rueda Orejarena says.

According to the report, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Peru and Mexico have become heavily reliant on the Kremlin for supplies of weapons and military equipment.

Meanwhile, Brazil, which is one of the biggest importers of fertiliser globally, has around 40 percent of its needs provided by Russia, making them dependent on Putin’s favour in a vital element of their agricultural sector.

In comments during the presentation translated from Infobae’s reporting in Spanish, Rueda Orejarena noted that Brazil has “adopted a cautious stance in the face of international sanctions against Moscow, avoiding direct confrontations due to the critical dependence on fertilizers.”

Venezuela’s trade with Moscow, which is among the countries that stand out in terms of their energy ties, allows it to get around some of the sanctions they themselves face, the report suggests.

Using the energy sector as a geopolitical tool has become a fundamental pillar Russia‘s strategy, the report argues, with Russian oil exports to Latin America rising significantly since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.

Its said to have reached 300,330 barrels per day, amounting to around five percent of Russia‘s total oil sales.

But the penetration of Russian firms into important sectors in Latin America is multifaceted, the authors argue. “Rosatom has developed a nuclear research plant in Bolivia and is exploring the country’s vast lithium resources, a crucial resource for the production of batteries in the future,” Rueda Orejarena claimed.

The report also emphasised Russia‘s presence in the Caribbean offshore centres, with almost 125 large Russian companies registered in tax havens like Panama and the British Virgin Islands. Rueda Orejarena said: “These structures allow Russia to evade international sanctions and continue its commercial activities, including in sectors such as oil.”

The researchers claim the Kremlin has also sought to leverage soft power in the region, including spreading propaganda and via Russian state media outlets.

Though the report warns Moscow has managed to move public opinion in its favor to some extent, it notes that favorable perceptions toward Russia have dropped in Latin America.

“Argentina stands out with an average decline of 22.7 percent in support for Russia since 2018. Even in Venezuela, where Russian propaganda channels have been more effective, favorable activity toward Russia has fallen by around 10 percent, falling below 40 percent,” Rueda Orejarena said.

“In Bolivia, favorable perceptions toward Russia in 2023 remained at 44 percent, which is in fact the highest in the region,” he added.

Martin Vladimirov, who co-authored the report and is the director of the Energy and Climate Program at CSDO says Russia‘s alleged exploitation of institutional vulnerabilities of countries in the region is a key conclusion.

“We have always thought that the Kremlin’s playbook is not so different in different regions. Or that countries and academics in different regions do not always understand how the Kremlin works and this gives Russia opportunities to penetrate strategic sectors and there are no institutions that can counteract this process,” he said.

“We need to identify these weaknesses and strengthen local institutions to counter Kremlin incursions in the future,” Vladimirov warned. “If we do not do so, Russia will continue to exploit these cracks to expand its power in the region,” he warned.