The Ukrainians have shown both ingenuity and simultaneity in their attacks many times now. A Storm Shadow (for example) into one of the barges followed by a wave of USVs through the gap would overwhelm any defences there, and that might see the bridges down. This would be totemic in its own right, but even worse, a simultaneous attack on the overland rail line would mean that all supplies for the Dnipro front and the various bases in Crimea had to come by truck through an overburdened road network under the hammer of Zelensky’s guns and missiles. Whilst railways are easier to repair than bridges, supply problems on the peninsula would quickly mount and Russia’s ability to use it as a base would diminish even further. A double win.
Some have even started to consider if this might be the moment for an amphibious landing of some sort by Ukraine. The Ukrainians have already made determined efforts to get across the Dnipro river, but the classic use of amphibious assault is to outflank the enemy. A landing in Crimea would avoid the need to attack into prepared defences as on the existing front line.
Westerners would see this as inconceivable because the Ukrainians, properly speaking, lack the maritime resources for amphibious assault. It’s also a sad fact that despite the respect we have just paid to the veterans of D-Day, we in the West have grown deeply allergic to the risk involved in this kind of beach storming activity.
But it is perhaps worth noting that British military intelligence also assesses that Russia is now attempting to recruit fresh troops in the African countries of Rwanda, Burundi, Congo and Uganda. The British analysts consider that Russia has now largely run out of convicts to throw into the meat grinder, and that Putin is wary of rounding up even more Russians – as much because it would damage his economy and force more Russian men to flee overseas, as because he is concerned about domestic opposition.
There are plenty who believe Russia somehow has unlimited resources to call on as this war grinds on, but that doesn’t sound like it to me. With many troops recently drawn off to the north for the failed assault on Kharkiv, it just could be that the battered Russian forces in Crimea are ripe to be overrun.
Irrespective of what I think, for President Zelensky the question remains: when Crimea is choked off and isolated – as it surely will soon be – how does Ukraine press home that advantage?
Maybe Crimea doesn’t need Ukrainian ‘boots on the ground’ at all. Choke the arteries, increase the squeeze and wait for the missiles, ammo and basic supplies to dry up. Then watch the bills mount as Putin is forced to burn resources to hold on to the peninsula, achieving nothing but avoiding a propaganda loss. Add in the embarrassment factor and Crimea becomes not just a greatly reduced operational base but a negotiating point with strategic utility across the whole conflict.