Imagine, therefore, if we in the West were to be bolder, loosening the straps entirely and allowing Kyiv to use our long-range missiles – not just drones – to hit weapons depots and critical targets far deeper into Russian territory. Perhaps it would have the added benefit of waking up Russian citizens to the reality of what it means to be fighting a war that has cost their country more than 350,000 casualties.
The MoD stated last Friday that Russian forces had lost 70,000 men in the past two months alone, at a rate of more than 1,000 per day. This is likely to only increase throughout this summer, especially if Putin is using his army’s air defence assets to protect his own property.
I don’t care what people say about the supposed “resilience” of the Russian army – those levels of casualties are not sustainable indefinitely. Moscow is only willing to take such a pounding because Putin thinks he only needs to survive until November and then Trump will give him what he wants: at least 18 per cent of Ukrainian territory.
But if we in Europe can continue to support Kyiv regardless of the US stance – a big ask, which would require a far more proactive approach – then by early next year Moscow would have to start considering something that it has done everything to avoid: enlisting the men of Moscow and St Petersburg, who Putin has tried to shield from the war so as to not sow unrest at home.
Fundamentally, Russia is far more vulnerable than it first appears. Kyiv has adapted its strategy successfully given its limited resources. What we do in the next four months could shape the security of Europe for generations, and the Western leaders who met in the UK yesterday should unshackle Ukraine in order that it can gain a decisive advantage. For this war is not over.
Hamish de Bretton-Gordon is the former commander of Nato’s Rapid Reaction CBRN Battalion