This swap deal is an equally profound win for Nato and the Democratic Party in the United States. Multilateral cooperation between Nato allies, which markedly strengthened after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, extended to this prisoner exchange. While Germany steadfastly resisted FSB colonel Vadim Krasikov’s release from custody, as he murdered a Chechen dissident on its soil, it ultimately ceded its position for the greater good. Turkey’s mediation role underscored its ability to be a constructive ally, even as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan erodes human rights at home and maintains uncomfortably close relations with Russia.
Until yesterday, Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine Paul Whelan’s continued detention in Russia was a political liability for the Democrats. The memory of how the Iran hostage crisis derailed Jimmy Carter’s 1980 re-election bid loomed over Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign. During his triumphant June debate with President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump declared “As soon as I win the election, I will have that reporter out.” Trump also boasted that his relationship with Putin would ensure that Gershkovich would be released without the US paying ransom.
This prisoner exchange, which was demonstrably more successful than the 2022 swap of WNBA basketball player for arms dealer Viktor Bout or Biden’s for-ransom release of prisoners from Iranian jails, undercuts Trump’s warnings about American weakness. Harris can also showcase the benefits of multilateral engagement with allies, which contrasts with Trump’s unilateral America First vision.
But despite the euphoria surrounding the prisoner exchange, the West should not let its guard down. Putin is determined to reassemble his network of hybrid warriors against the West, which was dismantled by diplomatic expulsions and Yevgeny Prigozhin’s fatal betrayal. While they cannot travel to Western countries, Krasikov and other released spies could harness their experience to assist Russia’s covert operations. Russia will also be tempted to arrest more foreign nationals to use them as bargaining chips to secure the release of spies and saboteurs in Western prisons.
The release of Russian anti-war protesters and opposition activists in this swap deal is also only a tiny step towards freeing Russia’s prisoners of conscience. According to the OVD-Info civil society organization, about 700 people are imprisoned for political reasons in Russia and more still are awaiting trials after arbitrary detentions. This is not a new dawn for human rights in Russia.
Neither it is a harbinger of peace negotiations in Ukraine. Prisoner exchanges, such as the release of Azov Regiment fighters for Putin’s Ukrainian henchman Viktor Medvedchuk, have not led to broader dialogue. As Russia’s offensive in Donetsk continues, this swap deal is unlikely to be a game-changer. While this swap deal is a step forward, the hardest work in countering Russian aggression and Putin’s repression lies ahead.
Nevertheless, the idea that this was more of a success for Putin than the West is simply wrong. This was a victory for Western brokemanship and strength.
Dr Samuel Ramani is an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)