The world had been for months expecting the conflict in the Middle East to blow up. That escalation has happened finally. It has been a remarkable turnaround for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was under siege from within and under pressure from the outside. After Iran launched almost 200 missiles towards Israel, most of which were intercepted, Netanyahu has made it clear that Iran had made a “big mistake” and that it would “pay for it”. The US is reportedly “discussing” the possibility of Israel striking Iranian oil sites and warnings continue to emanate from Iran that more is coming.
Diplomacy is no longer even in discussion, and like many times in the past, battlefield realities are dictating the behaviour of key protagonists in the never-ending Middle Eastern saga. This time, Israel and Iran are face to face. After an Israeli air strike killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Netanyahu warned Iran – Hezbollah’s patron – that it could also become a target, underlining that “those who strike at us [Israel], we will strike at them”, and that “there is nowhere in Iran or the Middle East beyond the reach of the long arm of Israel”. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for his part, responded to the killing of Nasrallah by suggesting that it would be avenged and that his path in fighting Israel would be continued by other militants.
Israel Is Going For The Jugular
Israel’s ground invasion of southern Lebanon that began last week shows no signs of relenting, with Israel warning more people to evacuate their homes, saying strikes would continue. For many in Israel, like the former prime minister Naftali Bennett, this was “the greatest opportunity in 50 years to change the face of the Middle East”, with suggestions that Israel should go after Iran’s nuclear facilities in order to “fatally cripple this terrorist regime”. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also reached out directly to the Iranians, with the message that regime change was around the corner. “When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different,” Netanyahu said in a video statement addressed to Iranians, adding that “our two ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace”.
At the moment, however, no one is planning for peace. Buoyed by its battlefield successes, Israel is keen to go for the jugular. It has had some stunning successes with the decapitation of Hezbollah’s top leadership and the destruction of its weapons stockpile. The invasion of Lebanon is aimed at cleaning up the remnants of Hezbollah and its supporters. The veneer of the Iranian deterrent has been blown into smithereens. Iran is feeling the heat, and thus, unlike the very choreographed missile attack on Israel in April, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps made a public display of their recent retaliation by announcing their intent. But with Israel continuing to push through southern Lebanon and Washington moving another carrier battle group to the Mediterranean, difficult decisions await Iran. Much as it would like to draw a line under this, Tehran’s entire regional strategy, which till some time back looked like a winning one, suddenly has no legs to stand.
Iranian Regime Is In A Bind, But Not Going Anywhere
But it is exactly this which makes this a perilous moment in regional evolution. With its deterrence posture based on regional proxies now lacking credibility, Tehran has all the incentive to accelerate the development of its nuclear weapons capability, a move that will reshape the strategic contours of the Middle East. For all the bombast emanating from Israel about redrawing the political map of the region, a regime change in Iran remains in the realm of fantasy. The Iranian regime is not going anywhere in a hurry, nor is its worldview going to change. The only change that might come would be in the shape of its capabilities.
Even as the region struggles to come to terms with the escalation of violence, India’s equities in the region have also come under stress. New Delhi’s strong ties with both Israel and Iran will put pressure on Indian diplomacy. But its key priorities will remain ensuring energy security and the safety of its citizens in the region. India’s entreaties for restraint, however, are unlikely to have much of an impact on the key players in this conflict, which remain intent on using the present escalation to seek long-term strategic gains. But the Middle East is a curious region where victories and defeats are never permanent and the end of every war spawns a new one.
(Harsh V. Pant is Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy, at Observer Research Foundation, and Professor of International Relations at King’s College London.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author