So it is definitely not a maybe. Oasis are reuniting for a UK and Ireland tour that could be one of the most lucrative ever, with tickets being hyped as the “hottest of the decade”.
But one question people are asking is why? The most obvious motivation is money.
Despite both Gallagher brothers establishing successful solo careers since their split in 2009, nothing they have done comes close to the kinds of figures potentially on offer from the 14-date reunion shows that include a four-show run at Wembley stadium.
Birmingham City University estimate that the initial 14 dates could bring in £400m in ticket sales and other add ons, with Liam and Noel both in line to each earn £50m.
Dr Matt Grimes, course director of the music business BA at Birmingham City University, said the brothers could double their net worth in a few weeks. “They’re considering going into Europe as well, so they stand to make even more,” he said.
While ticket prices haven’t been revealed yet ahead of them going on sale this Friday, it’s likely they will have increased ten-fold from 1995, when tickets cost £14 on their UK tour.
Despite breaking up 15 years ago, Oasis as an entity hasn’t ever really gone away. The Gallagher brothers’ private lives have kept them in the tabloid press, while anniversary releases ensured their music continued to have a second life on streaming services.
The 2016 documentary Supersonic, reignited interest in the group from older fans who lived through the original Oasis era and younger audiences who were introduced to the Gallagher’s Mancunian insouciance, humour and self mythologising.
Eamonn Forde, the business writer and author, says Oasis have occupied a unique place within British culture, occupied by only a few acts such as the Beatles.
“They were ever present in the culture,” says Forde. “You can almost compare them to Abba or the Beatles, there’s always something happening to remind and draw in new listeners.”
“They’ve never monetised that nostalgia on this scale,” he added. “They’ll probably make more money from these gigs than they did in the entire 90s.”
Oasis are following in the footsteps of several of their Brit Pop peers by reuniting, but it doesn’t always work out. Pulp have had several get togethers over the years, while Blur reformed in 2009 and 2015 before their summer shows in 2023.
Blur’s comeback shows at Wembley last year were a success, selling out in minutes and impressing critics. But the reunion was fraught as a behind the scenes documentary To the End showed, as tensions within the band rose.
A cautionary tale comes in the form of the Stone Roses, another Mancunian band that paved the way for Oasis’s brand of lad-friendly indie. When they came back together in 2013, life-long fan and filmmaker Shane Meadows was on hand to capture the reunion which soured shortly after it began and resulted with members walking out mid tour.
Despite the fallout, Meadows’ documentary captures – perhaps better than any other film about music fandom – why bands like the Stone Roses appeal to so many people. “You can’t write it down, can you?” says one fan Meadows speaks with. “There’s a reason I’ve never worn a tie, there’s a reason I still listen to that [debut] album once a week. It still makes me tingle.”
Oasis have an even bigger emotional pull and cultural significance: their single Wonderwall has been streamed more than a billion times, while in the wake of the Manchester Arena bombing, mourning crowds broke out into a rendition of Don’t Look Back in Anger.
But like the Stone Roses the personal dynamics in the group are unpredictable. The Gallagher brothers didn’t speak to each other for years after their split in 2009, and have traded barbs in the press ever since: book makers are currently offering 4/1 on Oasis splitting up before the end of tour.
Forde believes that well-known friction may have led to water-tight contracts with clauses that would make it financially ruinous for either of the brothers to walk away or incredibly high insurance premiums for all parties involved in case of a split. But ways can be found to mitigate tensions when so much money is at stake.
“You hear about all these acts that hated each other whether it was The Eagles or Simon and Garfunkel, and they just didn’t see each other until they got on stage,” Forde said.
Another question lingering over the announcement is what will the line up be? Original guitarist, Paul ‘Bonehead’ Arthurs, has been touring with Liam Gallagher this summer, while Noel’s group – the High Flying Birds – includes former Oasis member Gem Archer who also played with Liam’s Beady Eye.
Whoever takes the stage will be part of one of the most anticipated – and potentially combustible – comebacks ever.