Finally the West might be ready to lift a ban on Ukraine firing Storm Shadow missiles into Russia. These long-range weapons have been available for Kyiv to use for months but could not be deployed without US permission since part of the kit is American controlled.
The main obstruction to their use has been in Washington, where officials said the missiles did not have sufficient range to hit Russian glide bombers, one of the targets identified by Volodymyr Zelensky. The Pentagon is also concerned that using Western missiles inside Russia could escalate the conflict.
But the arrival in Russia of a shipment of ballistic missiles from Iran has tipped the balance away from Ukraine. President Joe Biden is to meet Sir Keir Starmer in Washington on Friday to discuss the strategic implications.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Foreign Secretary David Lammy in Kyiv on Wednesday did not indicate that a decision was imminent, but even if it happens, will it make any difference to the course of the war? President Zelensky had made it his top diplomatic priority to persuade Western capitals to allow Ukraine to hit air bases and other military sites deep within Russia.
But there are divisions within Nato that will persist whatever the US and Britain decide, especially with Germany. Kyiv wants the German-made Taurus missile, but Berlin has so far refused to supply them.
Ukraine also wants the right to use its newly arrived F-16 fighter jets – US-made but supplied by Denmark and the Netherlands and soon by Norway and Belgium – to bomb targets in Russia. President Zelensky says that these are defensive weapons since they can knock out Russian missiles and guided aerial bombs, as well as countering pressure on key front lines. That means hitting air bases, logistical nodes, command and control centres and troop formations.
After two years spent soaking up attacks on its towns and cities, Ukraine wants to take the fight fully into Russia, having already sent its troops across the border into the Kursk region. But no one should be under any doubt that this could escalate the conflict. Russia’s response so far to Ukraine’s incursions may have been muted but is unlikely to stay that way.
Nato needs to demonstrate a united willingness to confront whatever is about to happen next.