Elections to the world’s only transnational assembly get under way in earnest on Thursday as Dutch voters go to the polls in a four-day, 27-country ballot that will return 720 MEPs to the next European parliament.
The results of the elections, which will shape the makeup of the next European Commission and could have a major impact on the bloc’s political direction in key areas including immigration and climate action, are expected on Sunday evening.
The centre-right European People’s party of the commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, is expected to remain the single biggest group in the parliament, followed by the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberals of Renew.
However, this year’s ballot is being particularly closely watched because polls project big gains for populist and far-right parties that – while not enough to win them direct power – could significantly increase their influence on the mainstream.
On Wednesday afternoon, hours before Dutch polling stations opened, the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders – whose anti-Islam Freedom party (PVV) shocked Europe by finishing first in elections last November – was campaigning in The Hague’s market.
Surrounded by a mob of reporters seeking interviews and people demanding selfies, Wilders urged his supporters to vote, saying the election was “about asylum and national sovereignty. The coming days are crucial for the future of Europe.”
His remarks marked a departure from his usual anti-EU rhetoric. PVV has long called for a “Nexit” referendum on Dutch membership of the bloc, but had to drop that – and other – pledges in its recent agreement to form the next coalition government.
In the latest polls for the Netherlands’ 31 MEPs, PVV is predicted to go from one seat to eight, neck and neck with the Green-Left-Labour alliance led by the former commission vice-president Frans Timmermans, who is campaigning for a “free, sustainable, safe and democratic EU”.
Sermin Civi, 35, who came to the Netherlands from Turkey at one year old, was one of the crowd taking a selfie with Wilders, whom she said she admired for his anti-immigrant rhetoric.
“What he says is true,” she said, “although he says it hard. It’s not about Moroccans and Turks who live here, but refugees. We work hard and we can’t even find a house. As he says, the country is full.”
But with national Dutch press and chatshows dominated by the announcement of a new prime minister, the former intelligence chief Dick Schoof, interest in the European elections in the Netherlands is lower than ever.
In 2019, turnout in the Netherlands was 42% – less than the EU average, even though it was one of the founding nations of the bloc – and even some ministers have been unable to cite the names of the parties’ list leaders.
The new rightwing coalition’s key plans will need European agreement for a proposed opt-out on migration, milder pollution rules, and lower future financial contributions, but there still is a sense of malaise.
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“The whole campaign is a lame duck,” said Louise van Schaik, the head of EU and global affairs at the Clingendael Institute thinktank. “It’s similar to behaviour from the Brits before Brexit. Let’s say we’re not in love with the EU – but we also don’t want to leave it.”
Wilders now backs the formation of a far-right supergroup in the European parliament, an idea floated by the leader of France’s far-right National Rally (RN), Marine Le Pen, but unlikely to materialise due to factional rivalries and stark policy differences.
PVV sits in Le Pen’s far-right, anti-EU and often Moscow-friendly Identity and Democracy group (ID), which also includes Matteo Salvini’s League in Italy, Austria’s Freedom party (FPÖ), and Vlaams Belang in Belgium. ID recently expelled Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) as too extreme.
Its rival is the national-conservative, more EU-constructive and largely pro-Ukraine European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which includes Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, Spain’s Vox, the Finns party, and the Sweden Democrats.
“The general sense is that what the far right wants is less European regulation,” said Sarah de Lange, a professor of political science at the University of Amsterdam. “Less regulation of agricultural products and practices, less regulation to promote sustainability. But they still want the subsidies.”
Much will depend on who turns out to vote. “The tricky thing for the PVV is whether they are able to mobilise their voters: mostly, they don’t vote,” said Sjoerd van Heck, a pollster at Ipsos I&O. “It’s a difficult message to give, of course, if you say you want to leave the EU but people should vote for it anyway. Turnout is a factor you shouldn’t underestimate.”
Civi was considering casting her ballot for PVV. “But,” she said, “I almost never vote.”
Voting will be carried out in earnest across the bloc between Thursday and Sunday, although Estonia has allowed people to cast their ballots from Monday. Polling stations open on Friday in Ireland, on Saturday in Latvia, Slovakia and Italy, and in the remaining countries on Sunday.