Monday briefing: How the 7 October attacks changed Israel, Gaza and the future of the Middle East

Good morning. A year ago today, Hamas launched a brutal surprise attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people. A further 251 were taken hostage.

At about 6.30am on 7 October 2023, the last day of the Jewish holy day of Shabbat and the holiday of Simchat Torah, a barrage of rockets was launched from Gaza into Israel. Thousands of armed men then entered Israeli territory, in what Hamas called Operation al-Aqsa Flood, to launch the most deadly attack in Israel’s history.

Human Rights Watch, an international NGO, found that the militia group targeted at least 19 kibbutzim and five moshavim (cooperative communities), the cities of Sderot and Ofakim, two music festivals and a beach party, and concluded in a report that Hamas-led groups committed numerous war crimes and crimes against humanity towards civilians during the assault. There was unified international condemnation.

The magnitude of the massacre and the scale of the brutality came as a tremendous shock to Israeli society, which has still not recovered. After 7 October, Israel launched a bloody war on Gaza that has killed 41,500 Palestinians and continues today.

As Bethan McKernan, the Guardian’s Jerusalem correspondent, wrote: “The Hamas assault forever changed the region and the world. Its consequences are yet to fully unfold or be understood.” For today’s newsletter, I spoke with journalist Ruth Michaelson about 7 October and the war on Gaza that has followed. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Politics | Sue Gray has resigned from her position as Keir Starmer’s chief of staff after finding herself at the centre of a political storm since Labour came into power. Gray will be replaced by Morgan McSweeney, the party’s election guru who masterminded Starmer’s succession from Jeremy Corbyn, and with whom Gray is said to have found herself at odds in government.

2. Local councils | Derbyshire county council is considering charging parents of children taken into local authority care half of the weekly cost of looking after them. The cash-strapped county council said “unprecedented financial challenges” meant it had little option but to “maximise alternative sources of income” to try to reduce the strain on its children’s services. The weekly charge would range from £90 to £113 depending on the child’s age.

3. Scotland | An explosion has ripped through a block of flats in Scotland, leaving one man dead and several others injured.

4. Business | The UK steel industry has called for the government to consider further protectionist trade measures as it braces for a flood of imported steel amid a global glut driven by China.

5. Health | NHS maternity staff will take part in a mandatory training programme to improve patient safety after a damning report by the health regulator said that poor care and harm in childbirth were in danger of becoming “normalised”.

In depth: A ‘singular event’ for Israeli society

When Ruth arrived in Jerusalem, less than two days after the attack by Hamas, she was struck by the silence that had descended on a typically very loud city. “I remember how fearful the people I spoke to were when I arrived, how some in West Jerusalem told me they were only leaving the house to go to funerals,” she says. “I also remember that Palestinians in East Jerusalem and the West Bank were deeply fearful too about what was to come.”

The impact of the attack on Israeli society is deep and will be long-lasting, not just because of the horrific massacre itself but the ongoing issues that Israeli society is still grappling with. Tens of thousands of Israelis remain displaced. And while half of the hostages were released during a short ceasefire in November, 70 are dead (the remains of 33 of the deceased are still in Gaza). Israel believes 64 are still alive in captivity. “It’s incredibly hard to capture the gravity of that day and how much people were just completely engulfed by shock, trauma and fear,” Ruth says.

A lack of safety

The 7 October attack was a “singular event” for Israeli society, she says. The massacre shattered a sense of security that had built up in Israeli society over the past three decades of relative peace. “All of a sudden, the public felt vulnerable to what they saw as threats from outside and that will take a very long time to go away, if it ever will,” she adds.

The attack “broke a fundamental social contract the Israeli citizens had with their government”, Ruth says, which they felt failed to anticipate Hamas’s operation and reacted inadequately to the attack once it had started. Israelis expected immediate help from the military or police if something like this were to ever happen – instead the response was terrifyingly slow. The reports and inquiries since have highlighted the array of operational and intelligence lapses that led to such an inadequate response, which has only further degraded the sense of trust between the public and the state.

The fate of the hostages

Though there is disagreement about the best way to free those still held captive in Gaza, the fate of the hostages has been a steadfastly unifying issue in Israel.

Initially, families and loved ones of the hostages were careful not to be critical of the government, which they wanted to keep on side. That relationship has fundamentally changed in the past year, as they have become increasingly vocal in criticising the government for not prioritising the return of their loved ones. This discontent turned into regular protests, which melded with an anti-government movement that existed before 7 October.

A significant section of Israeli society has been shocked by what they see as an unwillingness from the government to prioritise civilian lives over continuing the war in Gaza. Reports of further hostage deaths in August prompted an outcry for the government to do more to bring home those still trapped.

Many now believe that Benjamin Netanyahu is prioritising his own political future over the safety of the hostages. While the country remains at war, his position as prime minister remains untouchable. Earlier this year, Ruth spoke to a woman who has two brothers-in-law who are still being held in Gaza, and she said she believes that “Netanyahu is fine with them coming home in body bags”.

Deepening divisions

Before the attack, Israel was a divided country, and these divisions have deepened. “Israel is a deeply traumatised society, without question,” Ruth says. Israelis have been living in a war economy for the past year, the cost of living is through the roof, and a new generation has been involved in active conflict.

In the extremist ultranationalist and settler movements, the 7 October attack is viewed as confirmation of their worldview and an endorsement of their methods. “Settlers view settlement as security, and so, in their eyes, they have to increase claiming land and displacing Palestinians from that land,” Ruth says. These views have become more entrenched, emboldened and extreme, with some within the movement pushing an agenda to resettle Gaza. During an ultranationalist march earlier this year, cabinet ministers called for the rebuilding of Jewish settlements in the region.

“The gap between the ultranationalists and settlers – who see all of this as an endorsement of their extremist viewpoint – and the more liberal Israelis – who were already deeply concerned by the changes that Netanyahu has made to their country – is only going to get wider,” Ruth says.

These schisms are not just political – they represent a significant difference of opinion on how Israeli society should respond to a shock of this kind. “The solution for some is to get rid of Netanyahu and to have a different government. The solution for others is a continuation of the war. It is a fundamentally divided set of perspectives on what needs to happen next,” she adds.

The war in Gaza

Gaza has experienced periods of intense violence in the past and life in the territory has long been difficult for Palestinians because of Israel’s blockade. But the devastation that has been wrought on the strip in reaction to the 7 October attack is unprecedented.

“The fear is that Gaza has been destroyed in a way that is permanent,” Ruth says. “Gaza has endured bombardment and war before and has managed to rebuild, but this destruction is not just of the physical structures, it is also of the social fabric.”

By this, she is referring to the destruction of universities, places of worship, hospitals and schools – the places that create a functioning society. Where they once stood, there is now just rubble. Those who have lived in Gaza their whole life are not only unable to live in it safely any more, they cannot even recognise which street they are standing on. An Associated Press investigation in June found at least 60 Palestinian families who had lost at least 25 people – sometimes four generations from the same bloodline – in bombings between October and December alone. This kind of killing has left a rupture in the social fabric of Gaza.

More than 41,000 Palestinians have been killed since 7 October according to local health authorities, 11,355 of whom were children. 90% of the population is estimated to be displaced. Disease is rampant. Víctor Aguayo, UNICEF Director of Child Nutrition, described the situation in Gaza as one of the most severe food and nutrition crises in history. Refugees International found that the “ebbs and flows in hunger conditions are closely linked to Israeli government restrictions and concessions on aid access, and to the conduct of the Israeli military”.

Outside Gaza, there is also a sense that the rules of engagement have changed in the other occupied territories. During her reporting, Ruth found that there was even more willingness to use lethal force against Palestinian civilians, including children, during night raids and at checkpoints. “Palestinians talk about adaptability and resilience in the face of tragedy, but I think this war has absolutely tested the limits of that,” Ruth says. “This is a level of loss that people from Gaza are struggling to comprehend and there is a sense from displaced people that I’ve spoken that there is nothing to return back to for them.”

Violence has now spread far beyond Israel’s borders, beyond Gaza, to Lebanon, Syria and Iran. One year on, it is clear the 7 October attack and the Israeli reaction to it will scar the Middle East for many years to come.

Read more

• Bethan McKernan visited Nir Oz Kibbutz and spoke to one resident about the profound loss his community has endured and how it has been irrevocably changed since the attack on 7 October.

• Neha Gohil interviewed Sharone Lifschitz, whose parents were taken hostage by Hamas. While her mother was released two weeks after being captured, her father is still being held. Lifschitz spoke about the unimaginable pain and trauma her family have experienced. Peter Beaumont and Quique Kierszenbaum spoke with other relatives of hostages about their suffering and scepticism that the government is doing everything it can to bring their loved ones back.

• Patrick Wintour’s analysis lays out how a year of war has left the country more isolated than ever before.

• Naomi Klein’s insightful reflection on how the Israeli state has transformed a national trauma into a “weapon of war” is challenging but essential reading. She asks: “What is the line between commemorating trauma and cynically exploiting it? Between memorialisation and weaponisation?”

• Ali Jadallah’s photo essay, showcasing his most powerful work documenting the war in Gaza, serves as a poignant reminder of the human cost of the relentless violence inflicted by Israel on the small strip of land.

• Jason Burke and Malak A Tantesh spoke with the Palestinian families about their lives before the war and the level of loss they have experienced in the last year.

What else we’ve been reading

• Though Donald Trump was always known for his acerbic and offensive tone, his rambling speeches have become even more incoherent and profane, raising concerns about his cognitive ability. With less than four weeks to election day, David Smith asked experts whether this shift will impact the polls. Nimo

• Emily Atack is frank and funny in this interview with Zoe Williams, discussing her role in the hotly anticipated adaptation of Jilly Cooper’s Rivals and the downside of her early appearances in the Inbetweeners: “I’d never even given it thought that I was overweight. I was a child, really. I was tiny. I must have been a size eight”. Toby Moses, head of newsletters

• Eva Wiseman’s interview with Stanley Tucci (pictured above) is as delightful and thoughtful as you would think. The pair discuss Tucci’s status as an online sex symbol, his cancer diagnosis and his new book What I Ate in One Year. Nimo

• Emma Beddington writes about the complicated feelings stirred up by the possibility of a cure for her alopecia: “Being bald hasn’t felt like a big deal for ages. Now, though, I’m thinking about it all the time, wondering about the alternative.” Toby

• On the 20th anniversary of Parkrun, Tim Lewis tracks how this event went from a small gathering of casual runners to a global phenomenon. Nimo

Sport

Football | Brighton came back from 2-0 down to defeat Tottenham 3-2 at the Amex, thanks to a winning goal from ex-Arsenal striker Danny Welbeck. Elsewhere, Manchester United drew 0-0 at Aston Villa, with Erik ten Hag insisting his job is safe, and Chelsea drew 1-1 with Nottingham Forest.

Tennis | Coco Gauff dominated the unseeded Czech Karolina Muchova to win the China Open final 6-1, 6-3 and become the first player to triumph in each of their first seven WTA hard-court finals in the open era.

Rugby league | York Valkyrie became the first side in Women’s Super League history to win back-to-back league titles after emerging through a thrilling grand final to deny St Helens an historic treble, with a 8-18 win.

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