Monday briefing: How Iran could retaliate against the latest round of Israel airstrikes

Good morning. The violent confrontation between Israel and Iran is still pretty novel, but the beats that govern it are already familiar: first an attack, then the delicate dance of assessing the damage, and then the wait to see how the other side will respond. After Israel launched airstrikes on military targets in Iran on Saturday, that choreography is again well under way.

On Sunday, satellite imagery appeared to indicate that the targets were air defence systems protecting oil and gas facilities, as well as military sites linked to Tehran’s nuclear programme and production of ballistic missiles. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel had “hit hard Iran’s defence capabilities and its ability to produce missiles that are aimed at us”. Meanwhile, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that “the evil committed by the Zionist regime [Israel] two nights ago should neither be downplayed nor exaggerated”, and implied that the nature of any response would be left up to the military authorities.

Khamenei’s remarks have been interpreted as a sign that no immediate military response is planned. But they were also too opaque to allow any firm conclusions to be drawn – and even if Iran’s response is delayed, it will still carry the risk of escalation should it eventually come. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Mohammad Ali Shabani, editor of Amwaj.media, a news website covering Iran, about how the attack is being assessed in Tehran – and whether it increases the risk of all-out war. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Israel-Gaza war | Approximately 70 people have been killed in Israeli airstrikes in the past day, health officials in Gaza said, as Israel’s renewed campaign in the north of the strip shows no sign of slowing despite the revival of ceasefire talks after a three-month-long hiatus.

2. Budget | Keir Starmer will promise to “embrace the harsh light of fiscal reality” on Monday as his chancellor prepares to unveil the budget on Wednesday. Rachel Reeves is expected to announce billions of pounds worth of tax rises, spending cuts, and higher borrowing to pay for a boost to capital spending.

3. Labour | Labour has suspended the whip from the MP Mike Amesbury after footage appeared to show him punching a man repeatedly, the party said. Security camera footage appeared to show Amesbury hitting the man and knocking him to the floor before aiming six more blows at his head.

4. ICC | The chief prosecutor of the international criminal court allegedly responded to a formal complaint of sexual misconduct by trying to persuade the alleged victim to deny the claims, the Guardian has been told by multiple staff at the court. Khan denied asking the woman to withdraw any allegations.

5. US | Anger and vitriol took centre stage at New York’s Madison Square Garden on Sunday night, as Donald Trump and a cabal of campaign surrogates held a rally marked by racist comments, coarse insults, and dangerous threats about immigrants. One speaker called Puerto Rico “an island of garbage”, while another declared Kamala Harris “the antichrist”.

In depth: ‘This will not be the last attack – it’s become normalised’

There has been some ambiguity in how the strikes have been described within Iran, with state media downplaying the impact even as hardliners said the attacks breached Iran’s red lines and demanded a swift response. Details of the damage which have not yet emerged could prove crucial, Shabani said.

“We are still processing the data that’s available,” he said. “That’s necessary to any understanding of what happens next.” And he questioned claims that Iran’s missile programme has been severely set back: “We don’t have the evidence of that yet, and I don’t think anyone does. But Iran has a very diverse range of missiles, and the idea they won’t be able to produce them for years doesn’t sound credible.”

What message was Israel trying to send?

What does seem safe to conclude is that Israel’s attack was calibrated, reportedly under pressure from the US, to avoid triggering an all-out war by stopping short of attacks on Iranian nuclear or oil sites.

The New York Times reported senior Israeli and Iranian officials saying the strikes hit air defence systems defending oil and petrochemical sites, a large gas field and a major port – leaving them vulnerable to future attack but still intact for now. The attack might therefore be understood as scaled to give Iran a plausible off-ramp – but also a warning that the next wave could be far more devastating.

But even if that was the aim, such an attack inevitably carries the danger of unintended consequences. Shabani points to reports that four soldiers who were killed were members of the regular army, not the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as an example of the risks.

Why might the soldiers’ deaths be significant?

Iran has a highly unusual military structure, with two parallel armed forces. The conventional military comprises about 420,000 personnel; the IRGC has about 185,000 standing troops, with another 600,000 said to be available for swift mobilisation.

“The IRGC was established after the revolution in 1979 out of fear of a military coup,” Shabani said. “It is not the most popular institution, because of claims of corruption and its role in clamping down on protest. But the army is the one national institution that has respect, because it is not political. And so the deaths of regular soldiers may make it easier to command support for a reaction.”

That is not to say that this course of events is guaranteed, he cautioned. “But it suggests how the threshold for a response can be lowered. A lot of the calculus is to do with saving face. And it is an example of the fact that it doesn’t matter how precise your munitions and planning are if someone is in the wrong place at the wrong time.”

What was Khamenei saying?

The supreme leader’s non-committal observation that the attack should “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated” is fairly typical of the man, Shabani said. “Khamenei has always been very wary about taking clear decisions. He understands that to remain as supreme leader, you need to be a supreme follower, as well.” While Khamenei is conservative, “he has always preferred to work with a reformist civilian administration.”

Until president Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash in May, “it was difficult for Khamenei – all of the branches of power were dominated by his camp, and there was often not a face-saving way out.” That may be part of why he accepted reformist Masoud Pezeshkian as president after Raisi: “if an opposing power centre holds some authority, if they have success, great – if they fail, it’s ‘I told you so’.”

Khamenei’s stance is therefore unsurprising – but it is implausible to claim that the nature of a response is merely a tactical military matter. “He’s the micromanager in chief,” Shabani said. “He sounds like he’s just an observer – but he’s the commander in chief of the Iranian armed forces.”

Pezeshkian struck a similar note yesterday, saying that Iran would “give an appropriate response” and that the country does not seek war. It may be that these remarks can be understood as a sign of caution. But they are also clearly framed in a way that leaves everything on the table.

Why has the exchange played out so slowly?

One striking feature of the tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran is how slowly they have developed. So far, each side has taken time over its response to moves by the other – a timeline that may make it seem that the escalation is under a measure of control.

But, Shabani argued, that view may be based on a misapplied western conception of how war unfolds. He pointed to a post on X from Murtaza Hussain of Drop Site News: “The modern western style of war is based on ‘shock and awe’ style operations with short timeframes. The opposing style is based on long attritional warfare. This is why Russia deemed prematurely to fail in Ukraine and Israeli wars in Gaza and Lebanon nowhere near a horizon.”

Iran may therefore not feel that speed is a necessary component of a significant response, which suggests that claims Khamenei has shown caution could be at best premature. “Perhaps Iran will act faster this time,” Shabani said. “But if they don’t, we know that it can still take place. And my view would be that given the extent of what happened, they are likely to believe that it is difficult to not respond.”

Is the region now closer to an all-out war?

“The million-dollar question is where the tipping point lies for major retaliation,” Shabani said. “We don’t know the answer to that.” As to Iranian public opinion, “I don’t think people in Iran want war – I don’t think people in Israel do either. There has been a flurry of nationalist messages on social media saluting the dead soldiers, but that doesn’t mean that is what normal people think. But perhaps they are a little more ready for war than they were 48 hours ago.”

One frightening variable in assessing all of this is the danger that the significant damage to Iran’s conventional defences may strengthen the hand of those in Tehran who make the case for building a nuclear weapon. That might take 18 months to complete, but any progress would be almost certain to trigger a more intense conflict, drawing in the United States.

“Weaponising the nuclear programme is the one game-changer at Iran’s disposal,” Shabani said. “Of course Iran doesn’t want war with the United States, but there will be those who question whether that is really still a choice, and who say that it is already paying the price for a bomb it hasn’t built yet.”

Even short of that calamity, Shabani’s prognosis is gloomy. “This will not be the last attack,” he said. “It’s become normalised now. And when these things happen and people see that actually it doesn’t lead to a cataclysm, you are on a slippery slope – that instead of waking up at war one morning through shock and awe, you slide into it by attrition. If that happens, it is a lose-lose game.”

What else we’ve been reading

• In the latest from the Anywhere but Washington series, Oliver Laughland visited Middletown, Ohio, the home town of vice-presidential candidate JD Vance, to understand more deeply what is driving so many young men to support Donald Trump. Nimo

• Keri-Sue McManus contacted doctors about her son Micah six times within a month because he seemed so unwell. She was told he would be fine, and made to think she might be making him anxious. But Micah died. Merope Mills’ interview with Keri-Sue for Saturday magazine is a devastating account of medical negligence and what can happen when parents’ concerns are ignored. Archie

• A great way to boost your protein intake for vegans, veggies or flexitarians (“flexies?”) like me, is by eating lentil and pea pasta. Rachel Dixon explores healthier ways to indulge in the nation’s go-to quick dinner. Olivia Lee, newsletters team

• “There are too many subplots that don’t cohere and diffuse the tension,” writes Lucy Mangan in her review of the new horror satire Generation Z, where teenagers fight off flesh-eating baby boomers. Olivia

• Isaac Chotiner’s Q&A in the New Yorker (£) with Israeli writer Yossi Klein Halevi about why no real anti-war movement has emerged in Israel is, as ever, incredibly revealing. Nimo

Sport

Football | Mohamed Salah snatched a point for Liverpool with an 81st minute equaliser as his side drew 2-2 with Arsenal at the Emirates on Sunday evening. Elsewhere, Cole Palmer scored the winner as Chelsea beat Newcastle 2-1, and a stoppage time penalty from Jarrod Bowen saw West Ham beat Manchester United 2-1 – increasing the pressure on United manager Erik ten Hag.

Formula One | Carlos Sainz won the Mexico City Grand Prix ahead of Lando Norris, who closed the gap on Max Verstappen in the driver standings after another furious battle that saw the reigning champion hit with two 10-second penalties and trailing in sixth.

Tennis | Jack Draper clinched the biggest title of his career with a brilliant exhibition of both his potential and resilience, dominating much of his encounter with Karen Khachanov before holding off a late surge to clinch the Vienna Open with a supreme 6-4, 7-5 win.

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