Moldovans have voted by a razor-thin majority in favour of joining the European Union, nearly final results showed on Monday after a pivotal referendum clouded by allegations of Russian interference.
On Sunday, Moldova held key votes in a presidential election and a referendum on EU membership, marking a critical moment in the continuing struggle between Russia and the west for control over the small, landlocked nation in eastern Europe, home to 2.5 million people.
After nearly 99% of votes were counted in the referendum that asked voters to choose whether to enshrine in the country’s constitution a path toward the EU, the “yes” vote crept into first place with 50.18% of a total 1.4 million ballots cast, according to the Central Electoral Commission.
The separate presidential election results showed the incumbent pro-western president, Maia Sandu, topped the first round of the vote with 41.91%. She will face her closest competitor, Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor backed by the pro-Russian Socialists, in the second round in two weeks.
The double vote in one of Europe’s poorest countries was seen as a crucial test of Sandu’s pro-European agenda, as she had urged Moldovans to vote yes in the referendum to affirm EU accession as an “irreversible” constitutional goal. The tight referendum result will disappoint Sandu’s supporters and her allies in Brussels.
Pre-election surveys indicated that Sandu held a comfortable lead over Stoianoglo and other candidates, while polls suggested that about 60% of voters supported the pro-EU path in the run-up to the referendum.
Moldova applied to join the EU after Russia’s full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, which was condemned by Sandu and many in the country as tens of thousands of Ukrainian refugees fled to its capital, Chișinău. Moldova officially began EU accession negotiations in June, though scepticism remains high about the country’s ability to implement the necessary democratic and judicial reforms in the near future.
Observers believe that a weakened Sandu could face a tricky second-round runoff against a united pro-Moscow opposition front led by Stoianoglo.
The two ballots were held amid claims by Moldovan authorities that Moscow and its proxies had orchestrated an intense “hybrid war” campaign to destabilise the country and derail its path towards the EU.
The allegations against Moscow included funding pro-Kremlin opposition groups, spreading disinformation, meddling in local elections and backing a major vote-buying scheme.
As votes were being counted on Sunday, Sandu blamed “foreign forces” for orchestrating an “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy”.
“We have clear evidence that these criminal groups aimed to buy 300,000 votes – a fraud of unprecedented scale,” Sandu added. “Their objective was to undermine a democratic process.”
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In particular, officials in Moldova have accused the fugitive pro-Russian businessman Ilan Shor, a vocal opponent of EU membership, of running a destabilising campaign from Moscow.
Earlier this month, the national police chief, Viorel Cernăuțanu, accused Shor and Moscow of establishing a complex “mafia-style” voter-buying scheme and bribing 130,000 Moldovans – almost 10% of normal voter turnout – to vote against the referendum and in favour of Russia-friendly candidates in what he called an “unprecedented, direct attack”.
Last week, law enforcement agencies said they had also uncovered a programme in which hundreds of people were taken to Russia to undergo training to stage riots and civil unrest.
Shor, who is based in Moscow and denies wrongdoing, has openly offered on social media to pay Moldovans to convince others to vote in a certain way and said that was a legitimate use of money that he earned. In the early hours of Monday, he claimed Moldovans had voted against the referendum.
Sandu, meanwhile, told her supporters on Sunday evening that she “will not back down from defending democracy and freedom”.
“We are waiting for the final results, and we will respond with firm decisions,” she added.