Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Middle East crisis live: IDF warns displaced residents not to return home yet as Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire begins

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Ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah comes into force

It is now past 4am local time in Tel Aviv and Beirut, and 2am GMT. That means the 60-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is now in force.

If it holds, it represents a major milestone in the 14-month-old war in Lebanon, and in what Joe Biden called a “historic” moment as he announced the deal from the White House earlier on Tuesday.

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, endorsed the ceasefire after his full cabinet approved the deal on Tuesday evening despite opposition from his far-right allies. In televised remarks, Netanyahu said he was ready to implement the deal, but added that Israel would retain “complete military freedom of action” in the event of an infringement by Hezbollah.

Under the deal’s terms, Israel will withdraw entirely from southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah will move its heavy weaponry north of the Litani River, about 16 miles (25km) north of the border.

During the transition phase, the Lebanese army will deploy to the buffer border zone alongside the existing UN peacekeeping force. Longstanding border disputes will be discussed after the 60-day withdrawal period.

“This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities. What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed, I emphasise, will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again,” Biden said.

Fighting continued down to the final hour before the ceasefire took effect, with reports of strikes on south Beirut after the Israel army issued an evacuation warning. That came after the IDF and Hezbollah traded attacks on multiple fronts in the preceding hours (see earlier post here).

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Key events

More on the cautious but nevertheless celebratory mood in Beirut, via the Associated Press:

As the ceasefire went into effect early Wednesday, much of Lebanon was quiet for the first time since late September, after weeks of intense overnight strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon.

Some celebratory gunshots could be heard in parts of Beirut’s southern suburbs, battered over the past two months.

Israel’s Arabic military spokesperson Avichay Adraee has warned displaced Lebanese not to return to their villages in southern Lebanon, but some videos circulating on social media show displaced Lebanese defying these calls and returning to villages in the south near the coastal city of Tyre.

A vehicle transporting mattresses drives towards southern Lebanon on a highway, after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah took effect on 27 November 2024. Photograph: Adnan Abidi/Reuters

Israeli troops are still present in parts of southern Lebanon after Israel launched a ground invasion in October.

Lebanese have also been displaced from other parts of the country, notably the southern Beirut suburbs and the eastern Bekaa province. It’s unclear how long it will take cash-strapped Lebanon to rebuild these bombarded neighbourhoods.

The war has displaced more than 1.2 million people, according to the Lebanese government.

US defence secretary Lloyd Austin has said in a statement that the ceasefire was a historic moment that was good for Israel, Lebanon and the security of the region, while also expressing hope that de-escalating tensions in Lebanon can be a catalyst for finding peace in Gaza.

Our support for Israel’s security remains ironclad, and so does our support for Israel’s right to defend itself from Iranian-backed terrorist organizations like Lebanese Hizballah and Hamas. The Department will consult closely with our international and interagency partners to support the implementation of the ceasefire.

As we welcome the news of this ceasefire, we also hope that de-escalating tensions across the Israel-Lebanon border also brings renewed hope for ending the tragic conflict in Gaza. We must continue to focus on improving the desperate humanitarian conditions in Gaza, and we remain committed to securing the release of all of the hostages in Gaza, including U.S. citizens.

Streams of cars head into southern Lebanon

Despite a warning from the Israeli military (see earlier post here) that it was not yet safe to do so, streams of cars carrying people displaced from southern Lebanon in recent months began heading south early on Wednesday after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into force.

A vehicle transporting mattresses and belongings drives south from Zahrani, after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah took effect on 27 November 2024. Photograph: Aziz Taher/Reuters

Reuters reports dozens of cars leaving the port city of Sidon south of Beirut about 4:00 a.m. local time (0200 GMT) and heading deeper into southern Lebanon.

People drive south from Lebanon’s southern coastal city Sidon, after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah took effect at 0200 GMT on November 27, 2024. Photograph: Aziz Taher/Reuters
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The Biden administration kept president-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration closely apprised of its efforts to broker the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah that took effect early Wednesday, according to the outgoing Democratic administration.

Trump’s team, meanwhile, was quick to claim credit for the rare spot of good news for a Democratic administration that’s been dragged down by the grinding Mideast conflict, reports the Associated Press.

“Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump,” Mike Waltz, Trump’s choice for his national security adviser, said in a post on X on Tuesday, shortly before the Israeli cabinet signed off on the agreement.

The Biden administration’s reported coordination with Trump’s team on its efforts to forge the ceasefire in Lebanon is perhaps the highest-profile example of cooperation in a sometimes choppy transition period.

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Some more world leaders have been voicing support for the ceasefire:

German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock welcomed the deal, hailing it as “a ray of hope for the entire region”.

“People on both sides of the border want to live in genuine and lasting security,” Baerbock said in a statement, calling the deal “a success for diplomacy”.

A top UN official sounded a note of caution, saying that “considerable work lies ahead” to implement the deal.

“Nothing less than the full and unwavering commitment of both parties is required,” UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, said in a statement.

A view from Beirut after the ceasefire had come into effect:

A view shows Beirut’s southern suburbs and surroundings, after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah took effect Photograph: Ayman Sahely/Reuters

What does this mean for a ceasefire in Gaza?

Bethan McKernan has the following:

Importantly for the Israelis, Hezbollah has dropped its demand that a ceasefire in Lebanon is contingent on ending the fighting in Gaza.

Since a truce in the Gaza war collapsed after a week last November, ceasefire negotiations have repeatedly failed. Qatar, a major mediator between Israel and Hamas, announced earlier this month it was quitting its role until both parties showed “willingness and seriousness” in the talks.

Resettling or permanently reoccupying Gaza is not official Israeli policy, but senior defence officials recently told the Haaretz newspaper that the government was aiming to annex large parts of the territory rather than negotiate an end to the war.

The question that has the region on edge is whether the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants will hold.

The ceasefire calls for an initial two-month halt to fighting and requires Hezbollah to end its armed presence in southern Lebanon, while Israeli troops are to return to their side of the border over the next 60 days. An international panel led by the United States will monitor compliance, while Lebanon’s national army and Unifil, the UN peacekeeping force, will be tasked with filling the void.

The ceasefire does not address the devastating war in Gaza, where Hamas is still holding dozens of hostages and the conflict is more intractable.

There appeared to be lingering disagreement over whether Israel would have the right to strike Hezbollah if it believed the militants had violated the agreement, something prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted was part of the deal but which Lebanese and Hezbollah officials have rejected.

As the 4am ceasefire threshold stipulated by President Biden passed, the situation appeared relatively calm in Israel, the New York Times reported. Hezbollah had not set off air raid sirens in the country by firing rockets and missiles since before midnight.

The quiet contrasted with some of the other scenes created by recent truces between Israel and militant groups, which saw both sides engage in minor exchanges of fire at roughly the same time those agreements were set to go into effect.

There were signs of apparent celebration in Beirut and no reported violations shortly after the ceasefire took effect, the Associated Press reported.

Some Israelis close to the border have expressed doubts.

“In my opinion, it would be a serious mistake to sign an agreement as long as Hezbollah has not been completely eliminated,” student Maryam Younnes, 29, told AFP.

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IDF warns displaced Lebanese residents not to return home

Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee said Israeli forces remained deployed in their positions inside southern Lebanon “as the ceasefire comes into effect and in accordance with its terms”.

He warned displaced Lebanese residents from the country’s south that they could not return immediately. “We will update you when it is safe to return to your homes,” he said in a post on social media.

Though the ceasefire agreed by Israel and Lebanon stipulates that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) must withdraw completely from southern Lebanon within the stipulated 60-day timeframe, the return of the troops to Israel is not expected take place immediately.

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Ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah comes into force

It is now past 4am local time in Tel Aviv and Beirut, and 2am GMT. That means the 60-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is now in force.

If it holds, it represents a major milestone in the 14-month-old war in Lebanon, and in what Joe Biden called a “historic” moment as he announced the deal from the White House earlier on Tuesday.

The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, endorsed the ceasefire after his full cabinet approved the deal on Tuesday evening despite opposition from his far-right allies. In televised remarks, Netanyahu said he was ready to implement the deal, but added that Israel would retain “complete military freedom of action” in the event of an infringement by Hezbollah.

Under the deal’s terms, Israel will withdraw entirely from southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah will move its heavy weaponry north of the Litani River, about 16 miles (25km) north of the border.

During the transition phase, the Lebanese army will deploy to the buffer border zone alongside the existing UN peacekeeping force. Longstanding border disputes will be discussed after the 60-day withdrawal period.

“This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities. What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed, I emphasise, will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again,” Biden said.

Fighting continued down to the final hour before the ceasefire took effect, with reports of strikes on south Beirut after the Israel army issued an evacuation warning. That came after the IDF and Hezbollah traded attacks on multiple fronts in the preceding hours (see earlier post here).

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