Bad news suddenly hits Microsoft
Republished on December 5 with reports into Microsoft’s latest AI problems, which comes as users are warned they must upgrade their PCs to maintain support.
Microsoft has a surprising new problem on its hands as it struggles to convince 800 million Windows 10 users to upgrade to Windows 11. With its popular ageing OS approaching end-of-support next October and sales of shiny new AI PCs not hitting the expected mark, this looks like being a critical holiday shopping season.
As I reported on Monday, the latest Windows stats from November show a marked end to the recent acceleration we’ve seen in Windows 11 upgrades. After eight steady months of transition from Windows 10 to Windows 11, the bad news is a sudden change in direction. And while that shift only accounts for around 1%—somewhere between 10 and 15 million users, the situation is much worse in the key US market.
According to Statcounter, globally Windows 10 market share was up from 61% to 62% over the month, with Windows 11 dropping from more than 35.5% to below 35%. But in the US, Windows 10 was up from 58% to 61%, with Windows 11 sharply down from nearly 40% to below 37% after six months of steady rises.
Windows OS version market share – global
The global numbers fall within the margin of error to some extent, but the US numbers seem more clear-cut. This change comes after Microsoft’s confirmation of a 12-month extended support option for Windows 1 users from next October. This will cost $30 per PC, but for those stubborn Windows 10 holdouts, it could be worth it.
We don’t know what’s driven the specific conversions, but it could well be Windows 10 users revering an upgrade now they know they can stay on Windows 10 with support—meaning security updates—through until; October 2026. And while Microsoft continues to nag users to make thew switch, these constant ads and reminders are not proving as effective as hoped.
Windows OS version market share – United States
The interesting twist to these Windows 10 numbers is the 400 million or so users that don’t have the right hardware to upgrade. While there are various options to upgrade on a non-compatible PC, Microsoft has just firmed up its warning that doing so could stop further updates and even invalidate any hardware warranties still in place.
There is also the Copilot factor. Is there a view amongst Windows 10 users needing a hardware upgrade that the lounger they leave this the more cost effective that move will be? And with AI features still fairly limited, there’s little downside. We already know most hardware upgrades are still for basic devices rather than new AI features.
I’ve suggested before that the trend-line post the ESU announcement will be interesting to watch, albeit this is a faster change than expected. December’s numbers and the holiday season PC sales data will send a strong signal as to what 2025 will likely look like. And then we will have the ESU take-up to add into the mix.
Microsoft has emphasized repeatedly that Windows 11 is a much safer and more secure OS than Windows 10. And so this change means 10-15 million users now taking risks they would otherwise be protected against. Not good news.
The really bad news for Windows 10 users is that Microsoft published a blogpost on Tuesday that essentially slammed the door on any hardware backtrack when it comes to Windows 11 upgrades. “With Windows 10 end of support approaching,” it said, “it’s important to revisit a key minimum system requirement for Windows 11.”
This is all about TPM 2.0, of course: “Let’s discuss the role of TPM and its value for those of you who have made the transition to Windows 11. You’ll also learn how to check your TPM status and how to prepare for Windows 11.”
“You know that Windows 10 is approaching end of support,” the blog continues. “In Windows 11, TPM 2.0 advanced encryption techniques offer more versatile and critical key management for contemporary IT infrastructures, as compared to its predecessor, TPM 1.2. Integrating with features like Secure Boot and Windows Hello for Business, TPM 2.0 enhances security by ensuring that only verified software is executed and protecting confidential details. It’s true that its implementation might require a change for your organization. Yet it represents an important step toward more effectively countering today’s intricate security challenges.”
No back doors and no u-turns, Microsoft has made clear. “TPM 2.0 is not just a recommendation—it’s a necessity for maintaining a secure and future-proof IT environment with Windows 11. And it’s an important part of the larger Zero Trust strategy, alongside Secure Boot, Credential Guard, and Windows Hello for Business.”
And so those 400 million machines that don’t make the cut really do like they’re heading for landfill sites, with users having to upgrade by October 2026 at the latest. And while Microsoft does enable some upgrades on incompatible hardware, it only does so where users agree their support and warranties likely end.
And yet, just 24 hours after Microsoft’s blogpost confirmed that the path to Windows 11 upgrades—hardware included—is indeed a one way street, comes some more bad news. If part of the push to get Windows 10 holdouts to stop holding out is the raft of shiny new AI features coming on stream, then Recall is the flagship offering presented as part of all that. And it’s apparently broken. Again.
“Microsoft continues to mess up Windows 11 Recall,” TechRadar explains, “failing to provide fix for weird bug that breaks the feature… Some of the Windows 11 testers trying out the Recall feature (which recently went live for Windows Insiders) ran into a baffling issue where it didn’t work at all, and Microsoft has just explained the problem – but failed to provide a fix for those affected.”
While Recall is still not generally released and is overcoming its initial teething issues and apparent security challenges, this isn’t a good look.
“As we saw last week, after Recall was finally deployed in the Dev channel for Windows 11,” TechRadar says, “it was immediately hit by some bugs. Indeed, some testers complained that it refused to save any snapshots at all (those being the regular screenshots Recall takes to facilitate its AI-supercharged search functionality).”
The Register explains that “Microsoft has pinned down why some eager Windows Insiders could not persuade the Recall preview to save any snapshots. It’s all down to a pesky non-security preview. KB5046740, which emerged on November 21, represents the final non-security preview release for 2024 (although there will be a monthly security release in December). The problem came when users installed this preview update, saw the Recall announcement, joined the Windows Insider Dev channel to get their hands on the code, and then… nothing.”
This kind of release bug is a software risk whatever the background, but anything Recall related has added sensitivities and attention. Microsoft will want smooth sailing all the way into and through 2025. A year in which it wants hundreds of millions of Windows 10 users to upgrade hardware for reasons beyond just the threat of withdrawn support—perhaps even before they donate $30 to the support cause.
“It’s reasonable to think that users willing to install a preview update from Microsoft might also be keen to join the Dev Channel,” The Register says. “They might want to check out the company’s latest attempt to convince the world that Recall is not an ill-thought-out privacy nightmare but instead a reason to spend some cash on a Copilot+ PC.” And that pretty neatly sums it up.
Perhaps another reason users might be better paying the $30 and waiting until 2026 to make an expensive AI PC upgrade, by when hopefully this is all smoother sailing.