It has long been known that artificial intelligence (AI) makes some professions and activities of human actors superfluous, as they can be automated or combined with other jobs. However, the order of magnitude now being forecast by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) is surprising. According to a new MGI study, the rapid introduction of artificial intelligence systems at companies will mean that many employees in Germany will have to adapt to serious career changes sooner than expected. By 2030, up to three million jobs in Germany could be impacted, corresponding to 7% of total employment. In order to prepare people for new roles, the authors of the study are calling for an acceleration of training efforts at all levels.
The projections presented by McKinsey assume an accelerated introduction of AI systems in the USA and Europe. This could lead to the automation of almost a third of working hours by 2030. This figure could even rise to 45% in the EU by 2035. According to the calculations, almost twelve million job switches could be necessary in Europe and the United States by 2030. In Europe, this would correspond to 6.5% of current jobs.
Multiple transformations
Of course, this AI transformation does not stand alone. There are other parallel changes that are shaking up the world of work, and putting additional pressure on the labour market. Robotic process automation, for example, is accelerating even further as algorithms continue to improve. And the shift towards climate-neutral, sustainable production is also turning entire industries upside down. At the same time new jobs are also being created, for example in the field of renewable energies, but many old jobs in the fossil fuel sector are disappearing. The people employed there will have to look for new positions.
The authors of the study also see the danger of the labour market becoming structurally fragmented. On the one hand, highly qualified jobs with above-average pay might be hard to fill. On the other hand, there is a risk of an oversupply of labour in the low-wage sector. In Europe, the proportion of highly paid occupations could rise by 1.8 percentage points, while the proportion of low-paid occupations could fall by 1.4 percentage points.
Social skills still important
The McKinsey researchers see the biggest changes coming to office jobs in the administrative areas of companies and public institutions. More than every second job change caused by AI (54%) in Germany falls into this area. Alongside Italy, Germany is particularly affected, as office support jobs account for a high proportion of total employment. Customer service and sales follow with 17%, while 16% of jobs in production are affected.
The best way for potentially affected employees to protect themselves from being sidelined by AI is through training and other qualification measures. According to the study, the demand for technical skills will increase significantly, by 25% in Europe alone. However, social and emotional skills will also be in greater demand (up 12%).
Problem solvers wanted
The authors of the study also talk about „critical thinkers’ and „problem solvers’ who will be in demand. They need to be able to monitor and support AI output. They are also needed to feed the ‘intelligence“ processes with tasks. Other work is likely to develop around the so-called ‘prompt engineers’ for activities that are not yet known – as many scientists have pointed out.
The German economy is complaining about a shortage of skilled labour, and some companies are hoping to remedy this in view of the AI transformation. However, the reorientation of many people who lose their jobs due to AI is not a sure-fire success. This must be actively supported by the state and companies through further training measures – also in order to prevent skilled workers from taking early retirement from the labour market as they did in the 1970s and 1980s.
Productivity increases
Under these conditions, McKinsey researchers see the economic consequences as positive. By accelerating the introduction of AI and effectively upskilling employees in the European economy, the annual productivity growth rate in Europe could be increased to 3% by 2030. However, there are also other studies that assume a much lower increase in productivity.
The McKinsey study analysed the most important economic and social developments up to 2030 in the USA and ten European countries, including Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, Sweden, Italy, Denmark, the Czech Republic and Poland. In addition, more than 1,100 board members of companies in Germany, France, Italy, the UK and the USA were surveyed.