Market winners and losers as Trump secures historic victory

Donald Trump has returned to the White House as the 47th US president, making him the first to serve two non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century with far-reaching implications for the global economy and markets. 

His Republican party now holds both chambers of Congress, granting him a powerful mandate to advance his policy agenda, which centres on low taxes on corporations and wealthy earners, high tariffs on imports, and reduced government spending.

Trump called this a “powerful and unprecedented mandate” in his first speech on Wednesday. 

However, a key aspect of his agenda also includes significantly higher tariffs – up to 60% on Chinese imports and 10% on other goods – a move that could reshape US trade dynamics.

In foreign policy, Trump’s stance could lead to reduced financial and military support for Ukraine, a departure from the Biden administration’s approach, while reaffirming strong backing for Israel.

Global equity markets reacted positively to Trump’s win, with investors relieved over the prospect of avoiding higher taxes under a Harris administration. The dollar strengthened against other currencies as analysts anticipate inflationary pressures and a potentially tighter stance from the Federal Reserve.

As investors adjust to this new political landscape, several key winners and losers are emerging across global markets.

Five market winners as Trump becomes the 47th US president

1. Small-Cap Stocks The Russell 2000 index, which tracks US small-cap companies, surged over 6% in early trading in Europe, nearing record highs and marking its largest single-day gain in two years. Trump’s protectionist stance is expected to benefit domestic producers, as higher tariffs on imports raise costs for foreign competitors, giving U.S. small-cap companies a competitive edge.

2. Russian Assets Markets are betting on a potential easing of US sanctions on Russia, pushing the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) index up by 3.3%, outpacing European peers. Russian energy giant Gazprom saw a 4% increase, while Sberbank, a major Russian financial institution, rose by over 3%.

3. Tesla Tesla shares jumped 4% in pre-market trading as the company looks poised to benefit from Trump’s renewed push for higher tariffs on Chinese and European electric vehicles. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, a vocal Trump supporter, was acknowledged in Trump’s victory speech, reinforcing expectations that Tesla could be shielded from international competition under a more protectionist US administration.

4. Bitcoin Trump’s support for deregulation in financial markets, including crypto, sent Bitcoin up nearly 8% overnight, reaching a new all-time high of $75,000 (€69,000). In late October, Trump declared his intention to end “Kamala’s war on crypto”, signalling a more favourable regulatory environment for digital assets under his administration.

5. US Banks Major US banks, including Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Bank of America, rallied by around 8% in pre-market trading. With Trump’s policies expected to boost trading revenues and widen interest margins, Wall Street banks anticipate a strong profit outlook. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also saw gains of roughly 7% each.

Five market losers As Trump secures US elections

1. Green Energy Stocks Renewable energy stocks took a significant hit as Trump’s policies are expected to reduce subsidies for green initiatives. Shares in First Solar fell by 12%, while Enphase Energy and NextEra Energy declined by 10% and 8%, respectively, reflecting the market’s concerns over diminished federal support for the sector.
2. Chinese Equities Chinese exporters face higher US tariffs under Trump’s protectionist trade policies, with a potential 60% tariff on goods imported from China. As a result, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong dropped 2.6%, and BYD, China’s largest electric vehicle maker, saw its shares decline by 3.6%.
3. Euro Economists expect the dollar to strengthen as Trump’s policies could fuel inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt tighter monetary policy. The euro fell 1.7% on Wednesday, marking its steepest one-day drop since the Covid-19-induced sell-off in March 2020, as investors flocked to the dollar for safety.
4. US Treasuries The Trump administration’s fiscal plans are likely to increase the US national debt by $7.75 trillion (€7.1tn) by 2035, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 143%, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. On Wednesday, yields on the 10-year Treasury bond rose by over 10 basis points to nearly 4.5%, reflecting increased borrowing needs and the resulting downward pressure on Treasury asset values.
5. German Car Makers Expectations of higher U.S. tariffs on imported cars weighed heavily on German automakers. Porsche, BMW, Mercedes, and Volkswagen saw shares drop by 6.5%, 6.4%, 5%, and 4.9%, respectively, amid fears that Trump’s trade policies could further erode profitability in an already challenging market for European car manufacturers.