Decoys are a staple of deceptive efforts on both sides of Russia’s 28-month wider war on Ukraine. The Ukrainian and Russian militaries both position fake tanks, artillery pieces and air-defense batteries – some made of wood and fabric or inflatable plastic, others based on the unusable hulks of formerly operational vehicles – all along the 700-mile front line of the wider war.
Attacks on these decoys are common, and easy to spot in some cases. When a Ukrainian or Russian rocket or drone strikes an operational enemy air-defense battery, the battery’s missiles tend to cook off and streak away in all directions. When the Ukrainians or Russians strike a dummy air-defense battery, the resulting explosion is usually suspiciously ordinary.
To protect its warplanes from Ukrainian raids targeting bases near the front line, the Russian air force has begun painting the silhouettes of planes on the tarmacs of the most vulnerable bases. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian air force parks decoy planes alongside active planes, in the hope the decoys will distract Russian attackers.
It works almost as often as it doesn’t. Since last fall, Russian drones and rockets have struck Ukrainian airfields at least seven times. The first two raids, last fall, took the Ukrainians by surprise – and destroyed two MiG-29 fighters. The third strike, in November, seemingly struck an inoperable air force Sukhoi Su-25 attack jet: a decoy. But then a fourth raid hit an operational Su-25.
Months later on July 1, a Russian drone spotted six Ukrainian air force Sukhoi Su-27 fighters parked on the tarmac at Mirgorod air base, in northern Ukraine a hundred miles from the Russian border. A Russian Iskander ballistic missile roared in, wrecking two of the irreplaceable supersonic fighters.
The next day, something similar happened. A Russian drone circled over the Ukrainian air base in Poltava, just east of Mirgoro. After hours of surveillance, an Iskander missile struck – at least damaging, if not destroying, a Ukrainian helicopter gunship.
And on July 3, it happened yet again. The Russians took aim at Dolgintsevo air base near Kryvyi Rih, 45 miles from the front line in southern Ukraine. A drone scanned the base, and as many as three missiles – Iskanders, it seems – rained down.
The Russian drones’ video feeds confirmed the destruction of two airframes: one, a non-flying decoy Su-25; the other, a functional MiG-29. We can assume the Su-25 was a decoy because, on close inspection, it matched the awkward profile of the decoy Su-25 the Russians struck at the same base in November.
In the aftermath of the recent string of attacks, Ukrainian air force commander Mykola Oleshchuk claimed his airmen “successfully conducted passive defense measures.”
“Thanks to everyone who helps with quality mock-ups of aircraft and air-defense systems,” Oleshchuk added. “The enemy has fewer Iskanders, and more mock-ups will arrive.”
That the Ukrainians will deploy dummy F-16s is almost certain. Where they’ll get the decoys is less clear. Several firms, including at least one in Turkey, manufacture inflatable F-16s. It’s also worth noting that Norway is donating 10 unflyable F-16s to Ukraine in addition to at least 12 flyable ones.
Those grounded airframes could be useful as sources of spare parts. But they may also aid Ukraine’s war effort by sitting out in the open at front-line air bases, welcoming Russian attacks.