Yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to “do everything” to end Russia’s war against his country by “diplomatic means” in 2025. Zelensky conceded that President-elect Donald Trump’s return will hasten the end of the Ukraine war.
Zelensky’s comments raised eyebrows as they departed from his typically defiant tone. At the February 2024 Munich Security Conference, Zelensky vowed that Ukraine would defend itself “with or without” allied support. At the UN General Assembly in late September, Zelensky presented Ukraine’s “victory plan” and warned against peace proposals that called for territorial concessions to Russia.
Has Trump’s pledge to suspend US military assistance to Ukraine shattered Zelensky’s resolve to fight against Russian aggression? The evidence points resoundingly to the contrary. Ukrainian officials are acutely aware of the pitfalls of negotiating with Russia and express hope that once Putin’s insincerity about pursuing peace is exposed, they will receive the support they need to prevail.
Ukraine’s confidence that Russia will act in bad faith is born out of recent experience. After signing the Minsk II Accords in 2015, Russia continued to escalate hostilities in eastern Ukraine. In September 2017, Ukraine estimated that Russia had deployed 6,000 regular troops and 40,000 proxy militia forces to Donbas. Every three days, a Ukrainian soldier perished on the front lines of Donbas’s so-called “frozen conflict.” The coincidence in timing between Russia’s participation in the March 2022 Istanbul talks and its perpetration of the Bucha massacre confirms Putin’s disdain for peace.
Ukraine is pre-emptively warning its Western partners of the inevitability of Russian betrayal. Kyiv’s reaction to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s call with Putin on Friday underscores this strategy. Zelensky derisively warned that Scholz’s phone call opened a “Pandora’s box” for the West. Former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba warned that Scholz’s call would erode Ukrainian goodwill towards Germany and reaffirm Putin’s belief that the West will eventually capitulate.
Despite military setbacks in Donetsk, Ukraine is doing all it can to stay in the fight. In recent days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces thwarted Russia’s advance on the Kharkiv battleground of Kupiansk. Russia’s 50,000-man army in Kursk, which includes North Korean soldiers, has failed to dislodge Ukrainian forces from their entrenched positions. Russian casualties are now at their highest levels since the start of the Ukraine war – 1,500 men are killed or injured each day. Even if Trump can engage Russia in talks on ending the war, the Kremlin will not enter these negotiations from a position of unbridled strength.
Ukraine is stockpiling an arsenal of military equipment to prepare for the eventual breakdown of talks with Russia. The EU External Action Service recently confirmed that Ukraine would finally receive the one million artillery shells that it was pledged eight months earlier. In line with Zelensky’s appeals, the US will send over 500 air defence interceptors to Ukraine before Trump’s inauguration. France has green-lit the transfer of additional Scalp long-range missiles and Mistral short-range missiles to Ukraine. Zelensky is also confident in the pace of Ukrainian domestic arms manufacturing. Ukraine has doubled its indigenous weapons production in 2024 and is slated to produce four million drones next year.
Once Putin’s strategy of using negotiations as a time-buying tactic is exposed, Ukraine hopes that the West will lift restrictions on its use of Nato-class weapons to strike Russian targets. Suggestions from Trump’s orbit that the US will arm Ukraine to the teeth if Russia rejects a ceasefire fuels this optimism.
Ukraine is not backing down from its struggle against Russian aggression. Instead, Zelensky hopes that the West will see the futility of negotiating with Putin and unreservedly commit to the cause of Ukrainian victory.