Additionally, on the basis of the fiscal commitments in their policy program, a National Rally government would actually widen the fiscal deficit. However, the EDP means Brussels is now expecting a fiscal tightening — not just a moderation of the fiscal expansion both the right (and left) intend to undertake.
This is where Macron’s snap election could, in the best case, undermine him in Europe, but in the worst case, prove fatal for what he has long spearheaded.
Macron’s credibility in the EU will depend on France getting its fiscal house in order. But none of the expected outcomes — whether a hung parliament or a far-right majority — will likely be able to deliver the fiscal course correction the Commission will now demand. And this will certainly set off alarm bells in northern Europe.
But there’s an even more direct challenge. While it’s true that as France’s head of state, Macron has responsibility over Europe, foreign affairs and defense policy, and that he would be the one to represent France in the European Council, it is ministers from his government that would represent the country in all of the Council’s formations — be it economic and financial affairs, foreign affairs, Europe, and so on and so forth.
If this were a National Rally government, it would give party leader Marine Le Pen, and her designate as prime minister, the ability to block all of the EU’s political and legislative priorities, regardless of Macron’s stance.
Moreover, any EU initiative that requires parliamentary approval back home would be blocked. This would almost certainly apply to more common financing for the EU’s security and defense agenda — the very thing Macron has been advocating. Moreover, the EU’s ability to negotiate its next budget, which runs from 2028 to 2035, would also require parliamentary approval and could also be called into question.
The fiscal mess at home, and the need for parliamentary approval for any big EU financing initiatives, could run a key part of the next Commission’s mandate into the ground before it has even begun. How ironic it would be if it’s Macron — the champion of a stronger France and stronger EU — whose gamble is responsible for weakening both.