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Elon Musk is making some big promises while campaigning for former President Donald Trump. But his business record calls into question whether he can deliver.

Musk and Trump have publicly discussed some kind of government role for the Tesla and SpaceX CEO if Trump wins the presidency. Although Musk and Trump haven’t provided any specifics, Musk has jokingly referred to his potential job as leading a Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, the name of Musk’s favorite meme and cryptocurrency. Trump on Fox News last week said Musk may serve as the “Secretary of Cost-Cutting,” a government agency that also doesn’t currently exist.

If he were to lead some kind of task force, Musk, on the campaign trail and in an August X interview with Trump, has promised to recommend steep cuts to reduce wasteful spending that doesn’t benefit Americans, perhaps using AI to determine where to cut. He has also said he’d pitch a massive rollback of government regulations, which has has long griped about. And Musk has promised a gentle touch, offering generous severance packages to laid-off government workers, while at the same time proposing an assessment system that threatens layoffs to wasteful employees.

All of those are tactics Musk has employed or promised at his businesses. His track record is mixed. Musk did not respond to a request for comment.

Steep cuts: Trump, in his interview with Musk in August and in subsequent public discussions about a possible government role for Musk, has praised the CEO for his ruthlessness with layoffs. The UAW autoworkers union filed labor charges against the pair in August after Trump called Musk a “cutter” and suggested he would fire striking autoworkers. And Trump, announcing in September his plans for Musk’s possible role, said Musk would make recommendations for “drastic reforms.”

When discussing what he might do for the government, Musk said in a Pittsburgh town hall Sunday that major cuts to government spending would be necessary: “Step No. 1 is to spend a lot less of it,” Musk said. “Let’s start from scratch.”

But cuts haven’t always worked out so well for Musk’s companies.

At X, Musk has made significant layoffs, slashing roughly 80% of the company’s staff. That has led to a janky, unstable product, as evidenced by his disastrous technology failures when interviewing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2023 and Trump a couple of months ago. Musk has also eliminated X’s trust and safety teams, leading to an escalation in hate speech and unchecked misinformation — and an advertiser exodus from the platform.

X is worth 80% less than what Musk bought it for in October 2022, according to Fidelity.

Read Goldman’s full analysis here.

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