Exactly half of the competition titles have now screened at the Cannes Film Festival 2024, so as we prepare for the homestretch: Who’s out front to win some prizes right now? Every jury is specific, but by my estimation, the strongest current Palme d’Or contenders come from three Cannes regulars: Jia Zhangke’s Caught by the Tides, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez, and Andrea Arnold’s Bird. (No, I don’t think a Megalopolis upset is in the cards.)
Despite his extensive history on the Croisette, Jia has thus far only won a screenplay prize, and Tides is one of this year’s best-reviewed entrants. Emilia Perez is the obvious heavyweight as it remains the top talking point around town, and comes from a past winner in Audiard—who’s showing the jurors something completely new here. Of this trio, Bird is surely the quietest, but I keep hearing it come up, and it’s a movie that stays with you—one with a stronger emotional pull than anything else in competition thus far.
Other films I could see going the distance include Yorgos Lanthimos’s Kinds of Kindness, though it’s generally considered a relatively minor effort from the Poor Things director, and Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance, which could start a new body-horror tradition after Titane’s thrilling win a few years ago. Ultimately, I think both are stronger in the acting races. The Substance features a career-best Demi Moore, and Cannes jurors have proven happy to honor screen icons here in the recent past, like Julianne Moore or Juliette Binoche. And Jesse Plemons’s nifty triptych of gonzo performances in Kindness merits serious consideration.
Moore’s stiffest competition for the actress prize so far comes from those aforementioned front-running movies, should the jury opt to honor them just a bit further down the line. Either Karla Sofía Gascón or Zoe Saldaña would make a worthy winner for Emilia Perez, or you could throw in supporting standout Selena Gomez and honor all three, Volver-style. (That film’s six principal actresses jointly won the prize in 2006.) Meanwhile, Caught by the Tides stars Jia’s longtime muse Zhao Tao, mesmerizing as ever here. In this space, I’d also watch out for the harrowing Danish drama The Girl With the Needle, which Mubi just acquired; Vic Carmen Sonne has received rapturous reviews even as the film has been more divisive.
Plemons has a bit more breathing room for the best-actor prize; only Ben Whishaw—who gives a major, risky performance in the otherwise divisive Limonov. The Ballad—would give him a run for his money at this stage. But Ali Abbasi’s The Apprentice and David Cronenberg’s The Shrouds premiere tonight; the former stars Sebastian Stan as Donald Trump and Jeremy Strong as Roy Cohn, respectively; the latter features Vincent Cassel as a grieving version of his director. Each has a compelling narrative to ride should the work deliver.
Festival darlings Paolo Sorrentino and Sean Baker will screen their new movies tomorrow, meanwhile, and as I mentioned over the weekend, all eyes are on late-breaking Iranian entry The Seed of the Sacred Fig after its preemptive acquisition by the Palme crystal-ball that is Neon. So while we’ve got some frontrunners to talk about, there’s also a lot of game left to play.