Thanks for joining us. Here are five key takeaways from the October consumer price index, released Wednesday:
- The monthly increase in both the headline CPI and the core, which strips out food and energy, rose in line with economists’ forecasts. The headline was up 0.2% for the fourth straight month, while the core rose 0.3% for a third consecutive month. As has been the case for some time, housing drove most of the core CPI increase.
- The 12-month gains also matched economists’ expectations, with the headline accelerating to 2.6% from 2.4% in part thanks to “base effects” from a low inflation rate a year before, and the core rate stuck at 3.3%. The annual core CPI rate hasn’t come down since July, and has averaged 3.5% so far in 2024.
- Falling energy prices help explain why the headline CPI is running lower than core. On a monthly basis, besides housing, the core CPI was led higher by used cars and trucks, airfares, medical care and recreation.
- The Biden administration said the report showed inflation is close to its pre-pandemic rate, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he has confidence that “inflation is headed to the right direction.”
- Treasuries advanced, suggesting relief that inflation didn’t exceed forecasts for October. Two-year yields were down about 9 basis points as of 9:09 a.m. in New York, and interest-rate futures showed rising confidence among traders that the Fed will lower its benchmark by 25 basis points next month. Stock futures erased declines, and contracts on the S&P 500 were little changed.