The strategic objectives behind Ukraine’s Kursk incursion this week are not yet confirmed but the advance represents a significant moment in this drawn-out conflict. It serves as an important reminder that President Zelensky’s forces have much left in the tank.
One of Kyiv’s serious battlefield issues is manpower, and this bold manoeuvre has forced Russia to deploy troops from other parts of the front line in eastern Ukraine, though it took Moscow days to send reinforcements to repel the advance.
Indeed, Vladimir Putin had initially sought to downplay the severity of the attack, even as fighting spread as far as the town of Suzhda and locals were forced to evacuate from the area leaving property, jobs and belongings behind. Ukrainian officials have declined to comment on the daring raid.
But in bringing the war to Russia and making its civilians experience the same displacement and bombardment that Ukrainians have endured for more than two years, they have humiliated Putin and strengthened Kyiv’s negotiating position in any potential discussions over how to end the war.
Ukraine has shown the world once again that it possesses strong offensive capabilities. Given this marks the first time regular Ukrainian forces have been used in this way, it is widely suspected they are doing so with some sort of approval from the Western alliance.
Questions remain over how long Kyiv will be able to maintain this assault; the further they push, the harder it will be to keep hold of their gains. But the move has turned the tables of this war on Putin, and will act as a significant boost to Kyiv’s morale.
Ukraine is under intense political pressure as its largest financial backer, the United States, heads towards its all-consuming election. It remains the case that, while Western support has contributed significantly to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russia’s attempts to overrun their country, especially in the initial phases of the conflict, our leaders remain divided on what they want Kyiv to achieve. As such, we have given Ukraine enough to survive in its existential battle, but not enough to win. This incursion may force our hand.
Earlier this week President Zelensky promised a “just peace through just force”. The West must allow it to achieve just that, regardless of who wins the race for the White House in November.