Set-piece debates don’t tend to move many votes in elections. Fewer than one in ten of the electorate who tuned into the supposedly pivotal Nixon-Kennedy showdown in 1960 changed their mind after it. But what debates can do is fire up – or depress – a candidate’s base. And in the immediate comedown of the Harris-Trump head-to-head, this feels the most likely scenario – no matter how many pundits are declaring this a decisive victory for the Harris campaign.
Kamala Harris’s first clever bit of politics was nodding to Polish-Americans and the threat Russia posed to their homeland. There is a body of votes in the contentious rust-belt to be won over here, votes she will need to win. Meanwhile, going hard on access to abortion – a long standing cornerstone of her platform – might rally the disgruntled left. Harris too was right to point out endorsements she had received from several Republicans. The broad-tent performance will likely serve her well. Though she risks losing a tranche of angry, logged-on 18-34 year old voters over Israel.
Meanwhile Donald Trump executed his most important job well: to nail Harris on jobs, inflation and the economy. Painting Harris as the continuity ticket from the unpopular Joe Biden could be very damaging to her indeed. And, Trump’s lead in the polls when it comes to the economy is the one metric that puts him comfortably ahead. The economy is among the primary issues that motivates the electorate.
But his wacky performance otherwise could have damaged his successfully delivered central message. He oscillated wildly between strange claims about immigrants eating cats, the dead horse slogan about the previous election being rigged. This all may be radicalising (in the right direction) for his core base. But those less convinced may feel alienated. Not all Republicans, for example, believe the election was rigged. Going in heavy on that narrative could see him shed important undecided voters.
But the debate isn’t a knockout round. The biggest risk to Harris is that she is hard to separate – no matter how hard she tries – from Biden and his failure to cut through on the economy. A non-insignificant part of the electorate expect it to get better under Trump. I break down how the polls look on these questions in my election forecast model here.
In the immediate aftermath I suspect that this debate will see enthusiasm for Trump drift, and for Harris rise. It may not be enough to be totally-narrative-changing, but in any case Harris has recouped some recently lost momentum.