But the Americans still keep another key weapon – the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS – on a short leash. ATACMS is a two-ton, precision-guided ballistic missile that ranges as far as 190 miles with a payload of hundreds of lethal submunitions. A single ATACMS goes in the same Himars-carried box that holds six GMLRS.
ATACMS are highly accurate and travel at speeds in excess of Mach 3, making them very difficult to intercept. The Ukrainian army has used ATACMS to devastating effect against Russian airfields inside Russian-occupied Ukraine. It hasn’t used them against Russian airfields in Russia, from where Russian warplanes stage for attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Which isn’t to say Ukraine is powerless to strike Russian airfields. The Ukrainian intelligence directorate has developed a dizzying array of long-range strike drones and routinely launches them at targets inside Russia. The deepest of these raids may have struck a Russian bomber base in northern Russian a staggering 1,100 miles from Ukraine.
But these drones are slow, relatively easy to intercept and carry fairly small explosive payloads. They travel farther than even the longest-range ATACMS, but they’re much less powerful.
The Russian air force fears ATACMS more than any other weapon. We know this because, this spring and summer, the air force read the tea leaves, wrongly concluded Biden was about to relax restrictions on Ukraine’s ATACMS – and ordered a partial retreat.
In a sort of technological mass migration, dozens of Russian jets and helicopters fled air bases within range of ATACMS and relocated to bases deeper inside Russia – and beyond the rockets’ reach. “Russia is now acting more pre-emptively rather than reactively,” concluded Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian analysis group.
Notably, this perceived ATACMS threat didn’t trigger any nuclear escalation. In other words, Russian officials predicted ATACMS raids on Russian territory – and didn’t respond by threatening an atomic apocalypse.
The Biden administration should understand the summer redeployment of Russian jets and helicopters as an indication it can relax its tight leash on Ukraine’s best rockets. Granted, the departure of so many aircraft from vulnerable bases means there are fewer targets for ATACMS to strike.
Fewer, but still plenty. The Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies tracked a wave of evacuating Russian warplanes back in May and, afterward, counted around 280 planes remaining at bases near the Russia-Ukraine border – and within range of ATACMS.
Successive retreats may have further reduced the number of targets, but there will still be some. It’s not too late for Ukraine to strike back at some of the warplanes that are making life in Ukraine a waking nightmare for millions of Ukrainians. It’s not too late to let loose the ATACMS.