For obvious reasons, it is impossible to know precisely what went through the minds of the Hamas commanders when they planned and authorised the atrocities committed on 7 October 2023. Indeed, some of those leaders are no longer around to explain themselves. However, they no doubt hoped that the chaos that would surely (and ultimately did) ensue would lead to some kind of geopolitical advantage for them.
They might have prayed for a rift to develop between Israel and the United States. If so, they are in luck, as exactly such a thing is coming to pass.
While it seemed impossible only a little over a year ago, an ultimatum from the US government to the Israelis has now been issued, and – presumably intentionally – leaked to the media. It has been a long time coming, but it speaks volumes about the long-term frustrations the Biden administration feels about the conduct of the war in Gaza, its spread to southern Lebanon, and the dangerous escalation of tensions in the region, especially with regard to Iran.
The letter, sent jointly by US secretary of state Antony Blinken and defence secretary Lloyd Austin, makes only the most modest of demands on Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet. Speaking no doubt with the authority of the US president, they ask that a minimum of 350 trucks be allowed to enter Gaza per day; for pauses in fighting to allow the delivery of aid; and that evacuation orders issued to Palestinian civilians be rescinded when there is no operational need for them. There is no talk of a permanent ceasefire, let alone withdrawal from the occupied Palestinian territories or from Lebanon.
Mr Blinken and General Austin have carefully given Mr Netanyahu 30 days to comply. This is no doubt in part because they wish to appear reasonable, but it also ensures that the deadline will run out only after the outcome of the presidential election is settled, meaning that a new president-elect will be in place and able to weigh up the options.
But the Americans are clear that the behaviour of the Israeli government is not just a matter for the White House. American law prohibits the supply of military assistance to any power that impedes the delivery of US humanitarian aid. Current American policy, even more importantly, is against Israel provoking a regional conflagration and a global crisis with an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities or oil installations.
Mr Blinken and General Austin speak for the West and for all of Israel’s friends and allies. Their move finds a parallel in the British government’s willingness to impose personal sanctions on two of the more extremist members of the Netanyahu administration, Bezalel Smotrich and national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who have made unacceptable and incendiary statements about aid convoys and illegal settlements on the West Bank.
France in particular is moving towards an open show of hostility towards Israel, with Emmanuel Macron calling for an arms embargo on the state and “reminding” Israel, ominously, that it was created thanks to a UN resolution in 1947. This triggered an angry response from Mr Netanyahu, who declared “shame” on the French president. Britain, France and Algeria have called for an immediate session of the UN Security Council, in light of the worsening humanitarian situation facing the Palestinian people.
Israel’s diplomatic isolation is growing acute. It must be said that this is not conducive to the security of the state of Israel – and that, tragically, it will give comfort and encouragement to its enemies, notably Hamas.
Will Mr Netanyahu be moved by these diplomatic manoeuvres? The signs are that he won’t, and not simply because his political leitmotif is angry defiance. First, in the favourite phrase of Joe Biden, “America will always have Israel’s back.” In the end, the West does not want to “lose” Israel, or to see it destroyed or even just menaced by its enemies. Israel’s right to defend itself is real. Yet that goodwill is being abused by Mr Netanyahu because he knows he can get away with it.
Second, there is still a chance that Donald Trump will return to the White House, and there is a realistic expectation, based on his last spell in office, that he will grant Israel a free hand and unlimited resources to do whatever it wants – quite possibly up to and including a decisive attack on Iran.
The convulsions, sufferings and instability endured by the region over the past year will be as nothing if Mr Netanyahu and Mr Trump form an alliance in just a few weeks’ time. The fate of the peoples of the Middle East lies with voters in the more finely balanced counties of swing states such as North Carolina. If Mr Trump wins, he will no doubt encourage Mr Netanyahu to unleash yet more fire and fury, including on Tehran – and all bets will be off.