Thursday, November 21, 2024

Is this the end for Georgian Dream? 

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With parliamentary elections set for late October, and EU membership negotiations due to start shortly thereafter, the timing of this behavior was largely puzzling. However, an even greater riddle was the ruling party’s 12-year reign: If Georgians were so passionate about Western integration, why did they keep reelecting the anti-EU Georgian Dream (GD) for more than a decade?

Under Mikhael Saakashvili’s leadership, in 2008, Georgia faced a major political setback. Despite significant democratic reforms and its active support for international military operations, Western partners didn’t grant Georgia NATO’s Membership Action Plan. And Russia’s subsequent invasion left the country devastated, while the U.S. “reset” policy with Moscow only deepened its sense of disappointment and abandonment. 

A creation of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who had returned from Russia in 2003, GD came to power in 2012, defeating Saakashvili’s National Movement. At the time, Ivanishvili’s wealth was equal to 40.5 percent of Georgia’s GDP, guaranteeing political loyalty and encouraging wishful thinking in a country with an average monthly salary of just $450 — despite his fortune being tied to Russia. 

Meanwhile, the party itself was a political Frankenstein’s monster, assembled on a platform of growing societal grievances. Initially maintaining a pro-European front, the government turned toward anti-liberal, anti-Western policies just as Georgia appeared to deepen its EU ties. And in the years since, it has trampled human rights, silenced dissent, spread conspiracy theories and disinformation, passed a “Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence” that sparked mass protests, and doubled down on anti-LGBTQ+ legislation, fueling homophobia.

Throughout this process, GD has undermined three key pillars of the country’s security and development: Georgia has now lost its strategic partnership with the United States, which has imposed sanctions on several government officials and halted development aid and military cooperation. The EU has suspended its accession process, citing concerns over democratic backsliding. And the country has also been marginalized from NATO’s political agenda.

Moreover, while those opposing GD say Ivanishvili is acting in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s interests, another actor is increasing its presence in the country: China.

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