Iran may be rethinking the scale and format of its planned reprisal against Israel after the assassination of Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, but is not likely to be put off by the absence of explicit support from Muslim states for an Iranian military response, officials have suggested.
Meanwhile, Israeli officials have reportedly concluded that the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah is determined to carry out an attack in the next few days in response to Israel’s killing of senior commander Fuad Shukr, but the degree to which it will coordinate with Iran is unclear.
US and Israeli sources have reportedly said in recent days that Tehran is still deciding on the scale and scope of its response after significant diplomatic pressure to avoid civilian casualties. Iran appears likely to target those responsible for the attack, specifically the Mossad and its agencies, rather than civilians.
At a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Jeddah this week, there was a unanimous condemnation of the killing of Haniyeh, with members stating it was in flagrant violation of international law and of Iran’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and national security.
But no formal collective support for an Iranian attack on Israel was issued, and Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, in his remarks called for cool heads and perseverance with a diplomatic path – saying that the assassination must be avenged but that “we must not fulfil Benjamin Netanyahu’s design for a wider war”. He said the Israeli prime minister was seeking to set a trap.
On Wednesday, Netanyahu told soldiers during a visit to the Tel Hashomer army recruitment base that Israel was “prepared for defence, as well as offence … We are determined to defend ourselves.”
The country is bracing itself for a response from Iran and from the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, whose military chief, Shukr, was killed in Beirut by Israel last week.
Hospitals in northern Israel and Lebanon have been preparing for a potential influx of wounded people. Israel’s home front command this week sent search-and-rescue battalions to big cities; large outdoor gatherings in northern Israel have been banned.
But Israel has not yet placed severe restrictions on civilian activity or changed its emergency guidelines: it is apparently loth to give too early a warning in case it allows Iran or Hezbollah to adjust their plans.
In an effort to revive a broader and credible diplomatic offensive against Israel, Malaysia proposed at the Jeddah meeting that a revised emergency session of the UN general assembly be held and that attempts be made to give effect to the advisory opinion by the international court of justice about Israel’s policy on settlements.
At a side meeting between the Jordanian foreign minister, Ayman Safadi, and the acting Iranian foreign minister, Ali Bagheri, in Jeddah – the second one in a matter of days – Jordan said it would shoot down Iranian missiles or drones if they enter Jordanian airspace en route to Israel.
Safadi told CNN: “Our message has been clear to the Iranians, to the Israelis, that we will not be a battleground for anybody. We will not allow anybody, to the extent that we can, to violate our airspace. Our first responsibility is towards our people, protecting the sovereignty of our country and the safety of our people. So our position is that nobody should use our airspace, nobody should subject our people to the threat of any projectile falling over any of our territory and harming our people, and that is a position that we’ve communicated to both the Iranians and the Israelis in very unequivocal terms.”
Bagheri, in an interview with Agence France-Presse, accused Israel – which has not commented on the death of Haniyeh – of wanting to “expand the war” in the region, while judging that it has “neither the capacity nor the strength” to fight Iran.
The reformist Iranian press reported claims that a decision to refrain from a revenge attack would increase Iran’s prestige in the region, intensify Israel’s isolation and even mean Iran would be credited for bringing peace.
The US said it was sending messages to Iran that an attack would be counterproductive, and claimed it had reassembled the military alliance to defend Israel that operated in April during the last clash between Iran and Israel.
The US is also telling Iran that Israel and Hamas may be close to a ceasefire agreement, but the explicit evidence for this remains slim, and has been dangled in front of states in the region before only for an agreement to prove elusive.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has for a second time called the new Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, to urge him and the Israeli prime minister not to become involved in a cycle of violence.
However, Pezeshkian said Iran “will never remain silent in the face of aggression against its interests and security”.
He told Macron that western countries should do more to put pressure on Israel. “If the United States and the western countries are truly seeking to prevent war in the region, they must force this regime [Israel] to stop the genocide and attacks on Gaza and accept a ceasefire,” Pezeshkian said.
A similar de-escalatory message has been sent to Bagheri by the UK foreign secretary, David Lammy.
Iran is angered that the UK, France and the US have not been willing to condemn Haniyeh’s assassination, and Iranian diplomats do not see any evidence that Israel will make any new concessions on a ceasefire agreement. Iran also argues that the inability of the UN security council collectively to condemn the assassination means Iran has been left with no alternative but to take unilateral military steps.
But as the time between the assassination and an Iranian response nears a fortnight, officials are increasingly briefing that Iran has no intention of provoking a regional war or causing mass civilian casualties inside Israel.
Iran is also distracted by the final stages of forming a new cabinet, which will be put to parliament for affirmation probably on Sunday. Pezeshkian is stressing that he is seeking to form a government of national unity and not just a reformist faction-led administration. It is expected that Abbas Araghchi, a former deputy foreign minister, will replace ‘.
The new government is also grappling with public anger over the release of a video showing two teenage girls being arrested and struck by members of the “morality police”. The incident happened in Tehran before the election of the new government, but Pezeshkian has called for the episode to be investigated. There has also been a spate of executions.