There’s no iPhone 16 ‘supercycle’, according to famed purveyor of Apple-related rumors Ming-Chi Kuo. The analyst has shared his data compiled from a supply chain survey and pre-order results from Apple’s official websites.
And the numbers paint a bleak picture for Apple. Pre-orders for the iPhone 16 series in the first weekend are estimated to be about 37 million units, down 12.7% year-on-year compared to the iPhone 15 family‘s first-weekend sales. And this is regardless of the fact that first-weekend sales for the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus were up year-on-year.
Demand for the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max is lower than expected, despite Apple having been very optimistic about the Pro Max’s outlook and growing shipments before pre-orders started (compared to the 15 Pro Max).
Kuo speculates that the disappointing performance of the Pro models has to do with the fact that Apple Intelligence features aren’t launching with them this Friday, on September 20, and will instead be delivered in batches, starting in October and going all the way into next year. There’s also said to be intense competition in the Chinese market which is impacting iPhone demand over there.
All of this said, Kuo doesn’t anticipate any cuts in production, at least not yet, saying the Pro models’ sales will improve once Apple Intelligence is out. The holiday shopping season could also help.