The iPhone 16 launch event is almost upon us. Apple is probably a few days away from announcing the keynote date. Leaks say that Apple will unveil the 2024 iPhone lineup on September 10th. If accurate, the phones will be available for preorder on September 13th. Moreover, the iPhone 16 release date should be September 20th.
When the iPhone 16 becomes official, Apple will also tweak its iPhone lineup. It’ll retire certain models and discount others. That happens yearly, and some iPhone buyers will wait for those price cuts rather than the new iPhones. But this year isn’t like any other year in Apple’s iPhone history. What if Apple does things differently this year, and instead of canceling the iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max, it keeps them around for a discounted price?
Apple’s way
Apple’s iPhone sales strategy is something no other vendor has copied. Apple keeps selling older iPhone models alongside the newest ones. It must be working since Apple has been doing it for years.
It’s all pretty simple.
Last year’s non-Pro variants get a $100 price cut when the new iPhone arrives. The old Pros are canceled alongside the oldest iPhone in the previous year’s lineup. All iPhones older than last year’s model get an additional $100 off.
Ahead of the iPhone 16 launch, the oldest iPhone you can buy right now is the 2021 iPhone 13. It starts at $599, but you probably should avoid it. This model will be discontinued next month, with a $599 iPhone 14 taking its place. The 2022 iPhone 14 sells for $699 right now.
The iPhone 15, currently selling for $799, will drop to $699. Finally, the iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max, which start at $999 and $1,199, should be discontinued once the iPhone 16 arrives. Apple never keeps last year’s Pro in place for another year.
Why would it be different in 2024?
It’s all about Apple Intelligence
I explained recently that once the iPhone 16 arrives, you should avoid the iPhone 15 at all costs. If you buy it for a discount, you’ll get a phone that won’t age gracefully. It will never run Apple Intelligence. On that note, the iPhone 14 won’t get Apple Intelligence either. But it could be a good $599 phone for particular types of buyers.
The best idea is to wait for the iPhone SE 4 if you want a budget phone. It’ll be as powerful as the iPhone 16 even though it’ll look like the iPhone 14. The iPhone SE 4 might launch as soon as early 2025.
Aside from the iPhone 16 phones, only the iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max can run Apple Intelligence. They have the Neural Engine and RAM needed for on-device AI.
Apple Intelligence brings the biggest software fragmentation in the iPhone’s history. Once it launches, we’ll have non-AI iPhones in the wild and AI iPhones. The latter category will only include the two iPhone 15 Pros and the four iPhone 16 models. The iPhone SE 4 will be another.
All iPhones after the iPhone 16 series will support Apple Intelligence. In time, Apple will fix this fragmentation.
What about a cheaper iPhone 15 Pro?
Meanwhile, Samsung and Google can roll Galaxy AI and Gemini AI features to older Galaxy and Pixel devices. Samsung has started doing this. Google will also bring Gemini AI features to many Android phones, including older Pixels. Meanwhile, only the iPhone 15 Pros will run Apple Intelligence of the older iPhones.
Then again, Apple sold a boatload of iPhone 15 Pros. The more expensive phones account for the majority of iPhone sales in the 12 months since the iPhone 15 launch.
Apple routinely sells around 200 million iPhones each year. Let’s assume half of those were iPhone 15 Pros units. This gives Apple some 100 million iPhone units that can run Apple Intelligence. That figure exceeds the combined sales of Galaxy S23 and Pixel 8 units by a wide margin. But Galaxy AI and Gemini
AI features will be available to non-flagship devices and non-Pixel phones.
Apple is probably looking at monetizing Apple Intelligence one day, so increasing the share of iPhones that can run its AI could be a good idea. One way to do it is to keep the iPhone 15 Pros in its lineup for one more year.
How would Apple price them?
The lack of iPhone 16 price rumors made me think Apple won’t raise prices this year. The iPhone 16 and 16 Plus will start at $799 and $899 as their predecessors. The iPhone 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max could also start at $999 and $1,199. I think Apple could try to bump the iPhone 16 Pro price to $1,099 by removing the 128GB option as it did with the iPhone 15 Pro Max.
All of this is speculation, and I’ll keep speculating about the iPhone 15 Pros. There’s no blueprint from previous years on pricing the older Pro models. Again, Apple never keeps those in stock.
What if Apple gave the old Pros a $200 price cut each? For $799, you can get the iPhone 16 or an iPhone 15 Pro. Similarly, for $899, you could get an iPhone 16 Plus or an iPhone 15 Pro Max.
It seems confusing, but Apple’s current lineup is already incredibly confusing. For $899, you can choose between the 512GB iPhone 13, 256GB iPhone 14 Plus, 256 GB iPhone 15, and 128GB iPhone 15 Plus.
Also, those discounted iPhone 15 Pro would be great alternatives to the Pixel 9 phones. Google increased prices this year, matching the new iPhone pricing scheme.
Some buyers will want cheaper Pros, even though the iPhone 16’s performance will be on par with the old Pros. Others will want the iPhone 16, with its design tweak, Capture button, and other hardware upgrades.
I know it seems unlikely and sounds confusing. But the point is that Apple might be better served by keeping the iPhone 15 Pro in stock and discontinuing the iPhone 15. Another option is keeping just the iPhone 15 Pro Max in stock for one more year and discontinuing just the iPhone 15 Plus.
The iPhone 17 series will help Apple clean up its lineup this year. The iPhone 14 will disappear, and the iPhone 15/Plus will be the only non-AI model in Apple’s inventory. That’s why the iPhone 15 Pro strategy above would be exceptional, applying only to the iPhone 16 generation.
Regardless of what Apple does, you can buy the iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max from other places once the iPhone 16 launches. Electronics retailers and carriers will still have stock available. They’ll discount last year’s Pros themselves to get rid of it.