Tuesday, November 5, 2024

India election results: Modi to lose outright majority

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People watch election results as Modi’s BJP-led alliance on course to return for third term

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi thanked voters for “saving the Indian constitution” as trends from India’s ongoing election count suggested that Narendra Modi’s NDA alliance was falling well short of expectations and opposition INDIA bloc performing much better than projected in the exit polls.

After around ten hours of counting, prime minister Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance was ahead in around 294 seats, maintaining a lead of just over 60 seats over opposition INDIA alliance.

It means Mr Modi’s alliance is on course to win more than the 272 seats needed to form a majority, but the BJP is likely to fall short of an outright majority and far short of the party’s performance in 2019 when they won 303 seats

Up until recently Mr Modi had boasted that his BJP-led alliance would win more than 400 seats.

Speaking at a press conference, Mr Gandhi said: “I am extremely proud of the people of India. And I am extremely proud of the people resisting the onslaught.”

The initial election results have spooked India’s financial markets, which had expected a hefty win for Mr Modi. The prime minister is seen as being pro-market and his decade in power has corresponded with huge increases in wealth for the business elite of the country.

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How are leading Indian politicians doing?

Narendra Modi: Indian prime minister is set to return to parliament as he wins national elections from his constituency Varanasi. After initially trailing behind his closest rival, Ajay Rai of Congress, he returned strong securing 612,970 votes beating his opponent by 152,513 votes.

(AFP via Getty Images)

Amit Shah: Home minister has won the election from his home state Gujarat, with a margin of 744,716 votes.

A candidate for the BJP in the Gandhinagar seat in Gujarat, Mr Shah secured 1,010,972 votes while his nearest rival, Sonal Ramanbhai Patel of Congress received 266,256 votes.

Gujarat, both Shah and Modi’s home state, appears set to provide a near clean sweep to the BJP, who lead in 25 of 26 parliamentary seats.

India’s prime minister Narendra Modi (C), surrounded by other party leaders and MPs including home minister Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath, greets supporters after filing nomination papers on 14 May 2024 in Varanasi
India’s prime minister Narendra Modi (C), surrounded by other party leaders and MPs including home minister Amit Shah and Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath, greets supporters after filing nomination papers on 14 May 2024 in Varanasi (AFP via Getty Images)

Kangana Ranaut: Bollywood actor Kangana Ranaut, making her political debut as the BJP candidate from Himachal Pradesh’s Mandi, is winning against Congress candidate Vikramaditya Singh.

She has secured 537,022 votes, while her Congress rival is behind by 74,755 votes.

Kangana Ranaut attends the unveiling of the statue of India’s independence hero Subhas Chandra Bose by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi (not pictured) near India Gate during the inauguration ceremony of the newly renovated avenue Central Vista in New Delhi in 2022
Kangana Ranaut attends the unveiling of the statue of India’s independence hero Subhas Chandra Bose by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi (not pictured) near India Gate during the inauguration ceremony of the newly renovated avenue Central Vista in New Delhi in 2022 (AFP via Getty Images)

Rahul Gandhi: Rahul Gandhi of the opposition Congress has won from Wayanad in Kerala. He beat Annie Raja of Communist Party of India, with a comfortable margin of 364,422 votes, securing a total of 647,445 votes.

The leading face of the Congress-led INDIA alliance, Gandhi is also comfortably ahead of his rival Dinesh Pratap Singh, with 687,649 votes in Rae Bareli.

In India people can contest multiple seats and must choose only one to take up as an MP.

Rahul Gandhi, a senior leader of India’s main opposition Congress party, waves as he arrives at the party headquarters in New Delhi, India, 4 June 2024
Rahul Gandhi, a senior leader of India’s main opposition Congress party, waves as he arrives at the party headquarters in New Delhi, India, 4 June 2024 (Reuters)

Shashi Tharoor: Senior Congress leader and former UN diplomat has fought back to lead the BJP’s Rajeev Chandrasekhar in the race for Kerala’s Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat, which he has won for three straight terms.

Initially trailing the race, Tharoor was declared winner after he secured 358,155 votes, winning by a thin margin of 16,077 votes.

(AFP via Getty Images)

Akhilesh Yadav: For two elections in a row, it seemed like the BJP was unsurmountable in Uttar Pradesh. After the Ram Temple inauguration, the party hoped to secure over 60 seats in the state out of a total of 80 available.

However, the Hindu nationalist party is in for a big jolt, largely from the Samajwadi Party led by Akhilesh Yadav. The party is leading in 35 seats, and has been declared victor in three constituencies, While BJP is leading on 26 seats and has won six seats.

Mr Yadav himself is leading by 170,076 votes against the BJP’s Subrat Pathak.

Indian National Congress (INC) Party leader Rahul Gandhi (2R) and Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav (C) gesture as they arrive to attend an election rally of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) on the outskirts of Varanasi on 28 May 2024, during country’s ongoing general election.
Indian National Congress (INC) Party leader Rahul Gandhi (2R) and Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav (C) gesture as they arrive to attend an election rally of Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) on the outskirts of Varanasi on 28 May 2024, during country’s ongoing general election. (AFP via Getty Images)

Namita Singh4 June 2024 14:30

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BJP loses seat in Ayodhya where Modi opened a grand temple in January

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s party has lost a seat in the Ayodhya constituency, a deeply symbolic loss after he opened a grand but controversial Hindu temple there in January.

The Bharatiya Janata Party candidate, Lallu Singh, lost to a rival from the regional Samajwadi Party, Singh’s poll agent Kamlesh Srivastava told The Associated Press.

Mr Modi and his party had campaigned heavily at the temple dedicated to Lord Ram, built on the historic ruins of a mosque that was destroyed by Hindu mobs in 1992.

Experts said the January opening, where Mr Modi performed rituals inside the temple, marked the unofficial start of his campaign as they hoped it would resonate with his Hindu majority voters. Modi’s government had turned it into a national event by organizing live screenings across the country and closing offices for half a day.

The BJP had held a seat in Ayodhya that falls under Faizabad constituency since 2014.

Namita Singh4 June 2024 14:15

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Prime minister Modi wins in Varanasi

Prime minister Narendra Modi is set to return to parliament as he wins national elections from his constituency Varanasi. After initially trailing behind his closest rival, Ajay Rai of Congress, he returned strong securing 612,970 votes beating his opponent by 152,513 votes.

Supporters of Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister and leader of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) feed sweets to his cut-outs as they celebrate vote counting results for India’s general election in Varanasi on 4 June 2024
Supporters of Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister and leader of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) feed sweets to his cut-outs as they celebrate vote counting results for India’s general election in Varanasi on 4 June 2024 (AFP via Getty Images)

Namita Singh4 June 2024 14:01

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Rahul Gandhi wins Wayanad

Rahul Gandhi of opposition Congress party has won from Wayanad in Kerala. He beat Annie Raja of Communist Party of India, with a comfortable margin of 364,422 votes, securing a total of 647,445 votes.

Namita Singh4 June 2024 13:50

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‘The fight was to save the Constitution of India’

Addressing a press conference after the opposition INDIA alliance posed a stiff resistance to Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, Rahul Gandhi said “the fight was to save the Indian constitution”.

“If I am being honest, when [the BJP] cancelled our bank account, sent chief ministers to jail and broke parties [through defection}, I was sure that people of India would fight for it.

Rahul Gandhi, a senior leader of India's main opposition Congress party, arrives at the party headquarters in New Delhi
Rahul Gandhi, a senior leader of India’s main opposition Congress party, arrives at the party headquarters in New Delhi (Reuters)

“I am extremely proud of the people of India. And I am extremely proud of the people resisting the onslaught.

“The hardest work to save the Constitution was done by the poorest of poor, the marginalised and the tribals.

“I would like to thank you and assure them that we stand with them and that we will fulfil all the promises.”

Namita Singh4 June 2024 13:48

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Congress chief calls Modi’s ‘arrogance’ the reason for BJP’s underwhelming performance

The president of the Congress party, Mallikarjun Kharge, called out prime minister Narendra Modi and his party’s “arrogance” as the reason behind their underwhelming performance.

Accusing them of trying “to capture all the Constitutional bodies” and using them to strong-arm the opposition, he said: “People understood that if Modi gets another chance then the next attack would be on the Indian Constitution and their rights.”

Thanking the members of the INDIA alliance, party workers and voters for their support, he said: “Our fight has not reached its end.

“We want to ensure that the parliament works effectively and that the issues raised by opposition are not brushed under the carpet.”

Rahul Gandhi, a senior leader of India’s main opposition Congress party, waves as he arrives at the party headquarters in New Delhi, India, 4 June 2024
Rahul Gandhi, a senior leader of India’s main opposition Congress party, waves as he arrives at the party headquarters in New Delhi, India, 4 June 2024 (Reuters)

Namita Singh4 June 2024 13:42

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Indian stock markets slide as Modi’s party fails to get outright majority

The market tanked the most in four years after a stellar rally on Monday as the exit polls over the weekend predicted 350 seats for the BJP alone to secure a third term for Mr Modi.

However, the BJP by Tuesday afternoon was leading on 240 seats – a massive fall in numbers from its record 303 seats victory in 2019.

My colleague Alisha Rahaman Sarkar reports:

Namita Singh4 June 2024 13:20

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BJP loses seat in Ayodhya where Modi opened a grand temple in January

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s party has lost a seat in the Ayodhya constituency, a deeply symbolic loss after he opened a grand but controversial Hindu temple there in January.

The Bharatiya Janata Party candidate, Lallu Singh, lost to a rival from the regional Samajwadi Party, Singh’s poll agent Kamlesh Srivastava told The Associated Press.

Mr Modi and his party had campaigned heavily at the temple dedicated to Lord Ram, built on the historic ruins of a mosque that was destroyed by Hindu mobs in 1992.

This screen grab from video footage from the Narendra Modi Youtube Channel taken and released on 22 January 2024 made available via AFPTV shows India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi walking into the Ram temple to officially consecrate the temple in Ayodhya in India's Uttar Pradesh state
This screen grab from video footage from the Narendra Modi Youtube Channel taken and released on 22 January 2024 made available via AFPTV shows India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi walking into the Ram temple to officially consecrate the temple in Ayodhya in India’s Uttar Pradesh state (NARENDRA MODI YOUTUBE CHANNEL/AF)

Experts said the January opening, where Mr Modi performed rituals inside the temple, marked the unofficial start of his campaign as they hoped it would resonate with his Hindu majority voters. Modi’s government had turned it into a national event by organizing live screenings across the country and closing offices for half a day.

The BJP had held a seat in Ayodhya that falls under Faizabad constituency since 2014.

Namita Singh4 June 2024 13:07

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Prime minister Modi wins in Varanasi

Prime minister Narendra Modi is set to return to parliament as he wins national elections from his constituency Varanasi. After initially trailing behind his closest rival, Ajay Rai of Congress, he returned strong securing 612,970 votes beating his opponent by 152,513 votes.

Supporters of Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister and leader of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) feed sweets to his cut-outs as they celebrate vote counting results for India’s general election in Varanasi on 4 June 2024
Supporters of Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister and leader of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) feed sweets to his cut-outs as they celebrate vote counting results for India’s general election in Varanasi on 4 June 2024 (AFP via Getty Images)

Namita Singh4 June 2024 13:05

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Modi may need a coalition to keep his job

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Hindu nationalist party appeared to be falling short of a majority in the early vote count. If these trends hold, it would be a stunning setback to the populist prime minister who has never relied on coalition partners to govern.

Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is still expected to form the new government and return Modi as the prime minister for a rare third consecutive term as his National Democratic Alliance is leading in about 290 seats. A majority requires 272 seats.

But the BJP alone is only leading in 242 seats, far from the strong finish Modi was aiming for after his party won landslide victories in the 2014 and 2019 elections.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters celebrate at BJP headquarters in Bangalore, India, 04 June 2024
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) supporters celebrate at BJP headquarters in Bangalore, India, 04 June 2024 (EPA)

If the BJP doesn’t win a majority on its own, it could “be heavily dependent on the goodwill of its allies, which makes them critical players who we can expect will extract their pound of flesh, both in terms of policymaking as well as government formation,” said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“This would be truly uncharted territory, both for Indians as well as for the prime minister,” Mr Vaishnav said.

Since coming to power in 2014, Mr Modi’s BJP has governed in a coalition but has always had the strength to form a majority on its own.

Namita Singh4 June 2024 12:51

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